Suburban stream erosion rates in northern Kentucky exceed reference channels by an order of magnitude and follow predictable trajectories of channel evolution

This paper documents ranges of streambed and bank erosion observed across suburban northern Kentucky via time-series surveys at 61 stream monitoring sites from the last ~10 yr. Average erosion rates in streams draining undeveloped watersheds (<5% total impervious area, TIA) were nominal: 0.5 cm/yr of incision (range of −5.8 to 11 cm/yr) and 1.0 cm/yr of widening (range of −58 to 20 cm/yr). By contrast, streams draining developed watersheds (>5% TIA) averaged 1.5 cm/yr of incision (range of −9.2 to 36 cm/yr) and 9.4 cm/yr of widening (range of −11 to 61 cm/yr). The suburban streams also followed predictable patterns of evolution consistent with the “classic” Channel Evolution Model (CEM) of Schumm et al. (1984), with the initial incision period (Stage 2) coinciding with bed coarsening followed by widening (Stage 3). Out of 45 sites draining >5% TIA, only four were in a state of dynamic equilibrium (Stage 1), two of which were attributable to stabilization via stream restoration and another was attributable to an upstream stormwater retrofit that substantially restricted erosive discharges. The other stable suburban site drained a watershed that was only 6.5% TIA and was just upstream of a reach undergoing incision and headcutting, implying that it would likely be experiencing incision (Stage 2) soon. Although the suburban sites spanned a gradient of development age and extent, >90% fell into unstable CEM categories (Stages 2 through 4), with only one site exhibiting features emblematic of potential geomorphic recovery (Stage 4 trending to Stage 5), attributable to an upstream stormwater retrofit. This case study underscores the predictable nature of long-term channel instability in gravel/cobble streams draining conventionally-developed suburban watersheds in support of more mechanistically based stormwater management strategies tailored to prevent the geomorphic degradation commonly associated with the urban stream syndrome.