Drivers of agricultural productivity: Evidence from transforming economies

This study empirically investigates the drivers of agricultural productivity in transforming economy. The study used a 35 year period (1980–2014) panel data sourced from World Development Indicators, Penn World Table, United States Department of Agriculture and Statistics on Public Expenditure for Economic Development. Data used for the study include Agricultural Productivity (AP), Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Government Agricultural Expenditure (EXP), Agricultural Trade Barrier (ATB), Consumer Price Index (CPI), Farm Machinery (MACH), Fertiliser (FERT), Human Capital (HCAP) and Irrigation (IRRG). Data were analysed using Impulse Response Function, Levin Lin Chu unit root test, Johansen Fisher Panel Cointegration test and Panel Least Squares regression technique. Impulse Response Function revealed that ln (GDP)reacted negatively to a shock from ln (Agricultural Productivity). Levin Lin Chu unit root test revealed that the variables were stationary either at level or at first difference. The result of the Johansen Fisher panel cointegration test showed that for every case at 5 percent level of significance, we reject null hypothesis of no cointegration. Panel Least Squares revealed that Agricultural Trade Barrier (α = 0.0531, p < 0.05), Human Capital (α = 1.2409, p < 0.01) and Irrigation (α = 0.0771, p < 0.01) increased Agricultural Productivity. However, Fertilizer (α = −0.0730, p < 0.01) decreased Agricultural Productivity. This study therefore concluded that Agricultural Productivity will grow in transforming economy with trade restriction on imported agricultural tradable commodities, increased investment in human capital and expansion in irrigation application. The study therefore recommends measures that will protect domestic agriculture, capacity building of the farmers and improved irrigation infrastructure that will enhance small scale farmers for all season cropping.