Assessing the Risk of Occurrence of Bluetongue in Senegal
2020
Gahn, Marie, Cicille Ba | Niakh, Fallou | Ciss, Mamadou | Seck, Ismaila | Lo, Modou, Moustapha | Fall, Assane, Gueye | Biteye, Biram | Fall, Moussa | Ndiaye, Mbengué | Ba, Aminata | Seck, Momar, Talla | Sall, Baba | Lo, Mbargou | Faye, Coumba | Squarzoni-Diaw, Cécile | Ka, Alioune | Amevoin, Yves | Apolloni, Andrea | Laboratoire National d'Elevage et de Recherches Vétérinaires [Dakar] (LNERV) ; Institut sénégalais de recherches agricoles [Dakar] (ISRA) | Animal, Santé, Territoires, Risques et Ecosystèmes (UMR ASTRE) ; Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE) | École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique (ENSAE Paris) ; Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique (GENES)-Institut Polytechnique de Paris (IP Paris) | Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Global Emergency Centre for Transboundary Animal Diseases (ECTAD) ; Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations [France] (FAO) ; Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations [Rome, Italie] (FAO)-Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations [Rome, Italie] (FAO) | Direction des Services Vétérinaires de Dakar ; Ministère de l’Élevage et des Productions Animales [Dakar] | This research was funded by European Project H2020 Pale-Blu (project no. 727393-2) | European Project: 727393,H2020,H2020-EU.3.2.1.1.,PALE-Blu(2017)
International audience
اظهر المزيد [+] اقل [-]إنجليزي. Bluetongue is a non-contagious viral disease affecting small ruminants and cattle that can cause severe economic losses in the livestock sector. The virus is transmitted by certain species of the genus Culicoides and consequently, understanding their distribution is essential to enable the identification of high-risk transmission areas. In this work we use bioclimatic and environmental variables to predict vector abundance, and estimate spatial variations in the basic reproductive ratio R0. The resulting estimates were combined with livestock mobility and serological data to assess the risk of Bluetongue outbreaks in Senegal. The results show an increasing abundance of C. imicola, C. oxystoma, C. enderleini, and C. miombo from north to south. R0 < 1 for most areas of Senegal, whilst southern (Casamance) and southeastern (Kedougou and part of Tambacounda) agro-pastoral areas have the highest risk of outbreak (R0 = 2.7 and 2.9, respectively). The next higher risk areas are in the Senegal River Valley (R0 = 1.07), and the Atlantic coast zones. Seroprevalence rates, shown by cELISA, weren’t positively correlated with outbreak probability. Future works should include follow-up studies of competent vector abundancies and serological surveys based on the results of the risk analysis conducted here to optimize the national epidemiological surveillance system.
اظهر المزيد [+] اقل [-]المعلومات البيبليوغرافية
تم تزويد هذا السجل من قبل Institut national de la recherche agronomique