Paleoclimatic context of projected future warming in southern South America

This paper describes changes of near-surface air temperature in southern South America from the Last Glacial Maximum (~ 21,000 years before present) to the end of the twenty-first century based on PMIP3-CMIP5 model simulations. The study shows modeled time evolution of temperature highlighting how different the projected future warming will be with respect to paleoclimatic changes documented in the region. In this context, model simulations suggest that the projected twenty-first century warming will be markedly higher than the change of temperature registered between the mid-Holocene (~ 6000 years before present) and the present. Even more, the regional warming projected by the following 60–80 years might be almost similar to or even higher than the pronounced increment of temperature developed between the Last Glacial Maximum and the present. This past/future comparison provides a new picture of the unusual warming expected for the following decades in southern South America in the context of climate changes developed through the last ca. 21,000 years.

Fil: Berman, Ana Laura. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina

Fil: Silvestri, Gabriel Emilio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina

Fil: Tonello, Marcela Sandra. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mar del Plata. Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas y Costeras. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas y Costeras; Argentina