How do various maize crop models vary in their responses to climate change factors?
2014
Bassu, Simona | Brisson, Nadine | Durand, Jean Louis | Boote, Kenneth | Lizaso, Jon | Jones, James W. | Rosenzweig, Cynthia | Ruarne, Alex C. | Adam, Myriam | Baron, Christian | Basso, Bruno | Biernath, Christian | Boogaard, Hendrik | Conijn, Sjaak | Corbeels, Marc | Deryng, Delphine | de Sanctis, Giacomo | Gayler, Sebastian | Grassini, Patricio | Hatfield, Jerry | Hoek, Steven | Izaurralde, Cesar | Jongschaap, Raymond | Kamanian, Amen R. | Kersebaum, Christian | Kim, Soo-Hyung | Kumar, Naresh S. | Makowski, David | Müller, Christoph | Nendel, Claas | Priesack, Eckart | Pravia, Maria Virginia | Sau, Frederico | Shcherbak, Iurii | Tao, Fulu | Teixeira, Edmar | Timlin, Dennis | Waha, Katharina | Agronomie ; Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-AgroParisTech | Unité de Recherche Pluridisciplinaire Prairies et Plantes Fourragères (P3F) ; Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA) | Department of agronomy ; University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF) | Department Produccion vegetal, Fitotecnia ; Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM) | Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering [Gainesville] (UF|ABE) ; Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences [Gainesville] (UF|IFAS) ; University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF)-University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF) | GISS Climate impacts group ; NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC)-NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) | Amélioration génétique et adaptation des plantes méditerranéennes et tropicales (UMR AGAP) ; Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro) | Territoires, Environnement, Télédétection et Information Spatiale (UMR TETIS) ; Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-AgroParisTech-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA) | Department of geological sciences ; Michigan State University [East Lansing] ; Michigan State University System-Michigan State University System | Department crop systems, forestry and environmental sciences ; Università degli studi della Basilicata = University of Basilicata (UNIBAS) | Centre for Geo-Information ; ALTERRA | WUR-Plant research international ; Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR) | Agroécologie et intensification durables des cultures annuelles (UPR AIDA) ; Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad) | Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research ; University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA) | School of Environmental Sciences [Norwich] ; University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA) | Agroclim (AGROCLIM) ; Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA) | Water and earth system science [Tübingen] (WESS) ; Eberhard Karls Universität Tübingen = University of Tübingen | Department of agronomy and horticulture ; University of Nebraska–Lincoln ; University of Nebraska System-University of Nebraska System | Department of plant science ; University of Pensylvania | Institute of Lanscape Systems Analysis ; Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF) | School of environmental and forest sciences ; University of Washington [Seattle] | Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture (CESCRA) ; Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI) | Institute of landscape systems analysis ; Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF) | Institute of geographical sciences and natural resources research [CAS] (IGSNRR) ; Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] (CAS)
Potential consequences of climate change on crop production can be studied using mechanistic crop simulation models. While a broad variety of maize simulation models exist, it is not known whether different models diverge on grain yield responses to changes in climatic factors, or whether they agree in their general trends related to phenology, growth, and yield. With the goal of analyzing the sensitivity of simulated yields to changes in temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations [CO2], we present the largest maize crop model intercomparison to date, including 23 different models. These models were evaluated for four locations representing a wide range of maize production conditions in the world: Lusignan (France), Ames (USA), Rio Verde (Brazil) and Morogoro (Tanzania). While individual models differed considerably in absolute yield simulation at the four sites, an ensemble of a minimum number of models was able to simulate absolute yields accurately at the four sites even with low data for calibration, thus suggesting that using an ensemble of models has merit. Temperature increase had strong negative influence on modeled yield response of roughly -0.5 Mg ha(-1) per degrees C. Doubling [CO2] from 360 to 720 mu mol mol(-1) increased grain yield by 7.5% on average across models and the sites. That would therefore make temperature the main factor altering maize yields at the end of this century. Furthermore, there was a large uncertainty in the yield response to [CO2] among models. Model responses to temperature and [CO2] did not differ whether models were simulated with low calibration information or, simulated with high level of calibration information.
اظهر المزيد [+] اقل [-]الكلمات المفتاحية الخاصة بالمكنز الزراعي (أجروفوك)
المعلومات البيبليوغرافية
تم تزويد هذا السجل من قبل Institut national de la recherche agronomique