Root and biomass allocation traits predict changes in plant species and communities over four decades of global change

Global change is affecting the distribution and population dynamics of plant species across the planet, leading to trends such as shifts in distribution toward the poles and to higher elevations. Yet, we poorly understand why individual species respond differently to warming and other environmental changes, or how the trait composition of communities responds. Here we ask two questions regarding plant species and community changes over 42 years of global change in a temperate montane forest in Québec, Canada : (1) How did the trait composition, alpha diversity, and beta diversity of understory vascular plant communities change between 1970 and 2010, a period over which the region experienced 1.5°C of warming and changes in nitrogen deposition? (2) Can traits predict shifts in species elevation and abundance over this time period? For 46 under-story vascular species, we locally measured six aboveground traits, and for 36 of those (not including shrubs), we also measured five belowground traits. Collectively, they capture leading dimensions of phenotypic variation that are associated with climatic and resource niches. At the community level, the trait composition of high-elevation plots shifted, primarily for two root traits : specific root length decreased and rooting depth increased. The mean trait values of high-elevation plots shifted over time toward values initially associated with low-elevation plots. These changes led to trait homogenization across elevations. The community-level shifts in traits mirrored the taxonomic shifts reported elsewhere for this site. At the species level, two of the three traits predicting changes in species elevation and abundance were belowground traits (low mycorrhizal fraction and shallow rooting). These findings highlight the importance of root traits, which, along with leaf mass fraction, were associated with shifts in distribution and abundance over four decades. Community-level trait changes were largely similar across the elevational and temporal gradients. In contrast, traits typically associated with lower elevations at the community level did not predict differences among species in their shift in abundance or distribution, indicating a decoupling between species- and community-level responses. Overall, changes were consistent with some influence of both climate warming and increased nitrogen availability.