A probabilistic model of residential urban development along the French Atlantic coast between 1968 and 2008

In most developed countries, the acceleration of coastal urbanization during the second half of the twentieth century has gradually resulted in a concentration of residential housing and associated infrastructure and facilities along a narrow coastal strip, along with various environmental, functional and social impacts. This has led certain countries, such as France, to adopt protection legislation with respect to their coastlines. However, while numerous studies describe and analyse the consequences of urbanization on the coastal environment, few of them examine the influence of the coast on urbanization. This paper focuses on the residential development process, considering the coastline as both a pull factor on account of its amenities, and as a constraint due to the legislation put in place to protect it. Our study aims to build a database describing the factors that influence the probability of housing development on vacant land and to analyse the spatiotemporal evolution through a logistic regression modelling approach. While controlling the factors usually mentioned in the scientific literature on urban sprawl and suburbanization, this method is also able to isolate the effects of coastal attractiveness, taking laws and bylaws regulating urbanization in such areas into consideration. It shows in particular that, since the early 2000s, the gradual implementation of a land planning framework specific to the coastal zone has led to improved regulation of housing development in the study area. Throughout the country, the French Coastal Law limited available land for housing development, particularly in coastal areas, by enforcing building restrictions in accordance with conservation principles. The paper concludes with potential improvements to our models, e.g. the integration of local economic factors, such as land costs or changes in taxation, all of which influence housing choices and could potentially regulate suburbanization.