Risk and reward of the global truffle sector under predicted climate change
2022
Cejka, Tomas | Isaac, Elizabeth L | Oliach, Daniel | Martinez-Pena, Fernando | Egli, Simon | Thomas, Paul | Trnka, Miroslav | Buntgen, Ulf | Czech Academy of Sciences | University of Cambridge | Forest Sciences Centre of Catalonia (CTFC) | Centro de Investigacion y Tecnologia Agroalimentaria de Aragon | Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research | Biological and Environmental Sciences | Czech Academy of Sciences | Czech Academy of Sciences
Climate change has been described as the main threat for the cultivation and growth of truffles, but hydroclimate variability and model uncertainty challenge regional projections and adaptation strategies of the emerging sector. Here, we conduct a literature review to define the main Périgord truffle growing regions around the world and use 20 global climate models to assess the impact of future trends and extremes in temperature, precipitation and soil moisture on truffle production rates and price levels in all cultivation regions in the Americas, Europe, South Africa, and Australasia. Climate model simulations project 2.3 million km2 of suitable land for truffle growth will experience 50% faster aridification than the rests of the global land surface, with significantly more heat waves between 2070 and 2099 CE. Overall, truffle production rates will decrease by ∼15%, while associated price levels will increase by ∼36%. At the same time, a predicted increase in summer precipitation and less intense warming over Australasia will likely alleviate water scarcity and support higher yields of more affordable truffles. Our findings are relevant for truffle farmers and businesses to adapt their irrigation systems and management strategies to future climate change.
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