An Earthquake Source Sensitivity Analysis for Tsunami Propagation in the Eastern Mediterranean

Öcal Necmioğlu; Nurcan M. Özel

An Earthquake Source Sensitivity Analysis for Tsunami Propagation in the Eastern Mediterranean

2014

Öcal Necmioğlu | Nurcan M. Özel

Accurate earthquake source parameters are essential input to tsunami hazard assessment and mitigation, including early warning systems. It is difficult to make accurate assumptions of earthquake source parameters where the tectonic setting is complex. To develop a better understanding of the relationship between tsunami impact and earthquake source, it is necessary to investigate variations in all parameters controlling the tsunami. This study investigates the sensitivity of earthquake source parameters in tsunami generation and propagation, with special focus on the Eastern Mediterranean. Our analysis shows that, given the difficulty in accurately determining all focal mechanism parameters, tsunami hazard studies should look at a range of parameters, taking into consideration the maximum generated tsunami. If this broad study scope is not possible due to computational limitations, at least sensitivity studies, such as presented here, should be conducted, and parameters should be selected that would lead to maximum tsunami generation. An option would be to consider only strike and rake variations in the scenario databases as the key criteria in determining the worst-case scenario for a given forecast point.

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