Wheat Farmers’ Perception of Constraints and Their Adaptive Capacity to Changing Demands in Egypt

Most of the approximately 105 million Egyptians depend on wheat in the form of <i>baladi</i> bread for their daily diet. Millions of smallholders along the River Nile have produced wheat for millennia; however, in more recent history, the wheat demand and supply ratio has dramatically changed. The first wheat imports in Egyptian history were in 1966. Today, domestic production meets only half of the wheat consumption, and Egypt has become the largest wheat importer in the world. Before the Russia–Ukraine war, 85% of the wheat imports to Egypt came from Russia and Ukraine. The war and the associated disruption of the wheat supply chains has put Egypt on the top list of so-called “developing countries highly threatened by food crises”. Against this backdrop, we analyzed decision-making factors and perceptions of wheat-producing smallholders in the Nile River Delta, the wheat basket of Egypt. The study draws on nine months of empirical fieldwork in the Nile River Delta. We employed a mixed approach to data collection, combining interviews and focus group discussions with smallholders, experts, and agriculture extension agents with transect walks and field observations. In total, 246 randomly selected wheat-growing smallholders were interviewed in four divisions in the Nile River Delta. Our findings show that the production of wheat by smallholders is highly influenced by system-immanent factors, such as subsistence need for home consumption and the presence and intensity of animal husbandry, as well as by external factors, such as the domestic prices for wheat determined by the government in each season and the time of the declaration of these prices. These factors affect smallholders’ decisions to increase or decrease their wheat cultivation area. However, the study also showed that the factors influencing farmers’ decisions to grow wheat or implement innovative practices vary across different areas within the same region. Smallholders struggle with poor access to fundamental production factors and are discontented with the low provision of extension and support services as well as poor market structures. These constraints act as disincentives for smallholders to produce (more) wheat. They need to be addressed and eliminated to increase domestic production and to reduce Egypt’s dependency on expensive and unreliable wheat imports.