Modeling of Zinc Accumulation Rate and its Uncertainty in Agricultural Soils of Kermanshah

Introduction: Zinc (Zn) is an essential trace element for plants as well as for animals and humans. On the other hand, Zn is a heavy metal and its high concentration can cause some environmental problems. There are significant relationships between soils, plants and humans Zn status in a certain agro-ecosystem.Therefore, mass flux assessment of Zn in agro-ecosystem is important regarding to plant and human nutrition in one hand and environmental quality on the other hand. Therefore, assessing the Zn accumulation trend in agricultural soils is essential to prevent Zn deficiency as well as soil pollution by Zn. Materials and Methods: This investigation was conducted in order to model Zn accumulation rate in agricultural soils of Kermanshah province using inputs and outputs fluxes mass balance. Mass Flux Assessment (MFA) model were applied for the modeling accumulation rate of Zn uses a random method of element balance with the combination of Latin Hyporcube method and Mont-Carlo simulation, in several agricultural ecosystems of some townships (Kermanshah, Songhor, Gilanegharb, Ghasreshrin, Shaneh, Sarpolezahab, Kangavar, Paveh and Javanrood). In this study, mass flux assessments were done at both provincial and township scales. Various routes of Zn considered in this study were livestock manure, mineral fertilizers, pesticides, atmosphere deposition, municipal waste compost (input) and uptake by plant (output). Agricultural information, including crop type, crop area and yield, kind and number of livestock, application rates of mineral fertilizers, compost, pesticides and atmospheric deposition rates and also a metal concentration in the plants, livestock manure, mineral fertilizers, compost and dust was used to quantify Zn fluxes and Zn accumulation rate. Given that the other sources of Zn input such as sewage sludge and output such as leaching are not important fluxes in the study area, the calculations performed here presented a good estimation of the average net effects of the dominating Zn inputs and outputs of the Zn status in agricultural soils of the study region. Results and Discussion: The results showed that the maximum and minimum of the Zn accumulation rate were seen in agricultural soils of Paveh (1172 g ha-1yr-1 in average) and Kermanshah (-26 g ha-1yr-1 in average)respectively. The average net flux of Zn accumulation rate for Kermanshah province was also 1538 g ha-1yr-1. The negative Zn accumulation rate of Kermanshah soils implies depletion of this element that is due to higher uptake of Zn by plants, especially crops with high performance such as maize and sugar beet. The calculated accumulation rates were less than the critical accumulation rate (calculated for the next 200 years in the study area). The results showed the high range (difference between the simulated maximum and minimum) of the Zn accumulation rate in Paveh was 1307 g ha-1yr-1, and the lowest in Songhor was 175 g ha-1yr-1. The major part of the uncertainty in the Zn balance resulted from manure source. According to the calculated SRCAP (Standardized Regression Coefficients Aggregated in Percent) values, Zn input with manure and then Zn output with crop removal were the main sources of Zn net flux uncertainty at township and province 9 levels. The uncertainty associated with livestock manure fluxes explained 67-94% of the total uncertainty. This large contribution was mainly due to large uncertainty in the numbers of dominant livestock, in particular cattle and poultry, and in the Zn:P concentration ratios of their manures. The influence of crop removal on Zn net fluxes uncertainty ranged from 3-29% among the townships. Differences in contributions of individual crops to the total cultivated area and in the Zn concentration of dominant crops as well as uncertain crops yield data were the main reasons for this large variation among townships. Conclusion:The most important routes of Zn entry into the agricultural soils were livestock manures (69-93%) and atmosphere deposition (9-28%) in township level, while in provincial scale, they were compost (61%), livestock manures (33%), and atmosphere deposition (5%) respectively. The uncertainty analysis results indicated that livestock manure was the most effective rout on Zn accumulations rate uncertainty (79% in province scale and 67-94% in township scale). The results also indicated that current agricultural management generally leads to accumulation of Zn in soils of the study area (with exception for Kermanshah township soils). This can cause some difficulties such as soil contamination or soil fertility loss by nutritional elements imbalance in future.