Impact of Land Use Change Due to Urbanisation on Surface Runoff Using GIS-Based SCS–CN Method: A Case Study of Xiamen City, China

Rapid urban development results in visible changes in land use due to increase in impervious surfaces from human construction and decrease in pervious areas. Urbanisation influences the hydrological cycle of an area, resulting in less infiltration, higher flood peak, and surface runoff. This study analysed the impact of land use change due to urbanisation on surface runoff, using the geographic information system (GIS)-based soil conservation service curve number (SCS–CN) method, during the period of rapid urban development from 1980 to 2015 in Xiamen, located in south-eastern China. Land use change was analysed from the data obtained by classifying Landsat images from 1980, 1990, 2005, and 2015. Results indicated that farmland decreased the most by 14.01%, while built-up areas increased the most by 15.7%, from 1980 to 2015. Surface runoff was simulated using the GIS-based SCS–CN method for the rainfall return periods of 5, 10, 20, and 50 years. The spatial and temporal variation of runoff was obtained for each land use period. Results indicate that the increase in surface runoff was highest in the period of 1990–2005, with an increase of 10.63%. The effect of urbanisation can be realised from the amount of runoff, contributed by built-up land use type in the study area, that increased from 14.2% to 27.9% with the rise of urban expansion from 1980 to 2015. The relationship between land use and surface runoff showed that the rapid increase in constructed land has significantly influenced the surface runoff of the area. Therefore, the introduction of nature-based solutions such as green infrastructure could be a potential solution for runoff mitigation and reducing urban flood risks in the context of increasing urbanization.