Experiments Reveal That Search Image Might Be Responsible for Seasonal Variation in Nest-Predation Rates

Investigations of seasonal variations in nest predation rates yield highly variable results. Some investigations argue that search image is responsible for some of the nest-predation patterns, but as far as we know, this study is the first in which search image in connection with seasonal variation in nest-predation rate has been experimentally tested. We used 1457 artificial nests placed in an identical way during the months of March to August, either in the two months consecutively or early and late within one of the two months, between the years 2000 and 2023. In addition, we compared the change in nest-predation rates at 113 artificial and 460 natural nests between the same two months. We estimated the seasonal variation in the abundance of breeding birds in the study area with 140 point counts to find the abundance of different species at the times when they normally breed. We found a strong and consistent seasonal variation in the nest-predation rate, with the highest predation rate in the middle of the breeding season. There was a similar change in the predation rate on natural and artificial nests between May and June. From July to August, the predation rate on artificial nests decreased significantly, while the search-image experiment revealed a significant increase between the same two months. A generalized linear mixed-effect model analysis found that the variation in nest-predation rates on artificial nests was significantly affected by seasonal variation in the estimated number of natural nests, that nests in trees were predated more often than nests on the ground, and that nests in the open landscape and on forest edges suffered higher predation rates than nests inside a forest. Mammals were nest predators significantly more often inside forests and on forest edges than in the open landscape, but birds were much more common nest predators than mammals independent of placement and habitat. Our experiment shows that search image explains the seasonal variation in nest-predation rates. However, more investigations are needed to find the reasons for the variation in published results on seasonal variation. Further, experimental testing on search image to find its contribution to the seasonal variation in nest-predation rates in other areas is also needed.