Will the Structure of Food Imports Improve China’s Water-Intensive Food Cultivation Structure? A Spatial Econometric Analysis

To explore new strategies for optimizing China’s food cultivation structure, this study empirically investigates the relationship between the food import structure and China’s food cultivation structure from the perspective of water conservation based on factor endowments theory. The following conclusions are drawn: (i) Overall, the water-intensive food cultivation structure (WFCS) in South China and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River shows a slightly upward trend and is obviously at a higher level. The WFCS in the Huang-Huai-Hai and Northwest regions shows a decreasing trend and is obviously at a lower level. (ii) The structural effects of food imports (SEFI) can effectively reduce the proportion of water-intensive food cultivation (WFC). Furthermore, every 100,000 tons of food imports will, on average, reduce the proportion of water-intensive food cultivation in the region by 0.161%. The negative effect of the SEFI on the proportion of WFC in the northern region and the major food-producing regions is stronger than that in the southern region and the non-major food-producing regions. (iii) The quantile regression reveals that the marginal role played by the SEFI is progressively stronger in regions with a higher proportion of WFC. This is because in regions with a low proportion of water- and land-intensive food cultivation, regional resource endowments are still sufficient to support the production. However, as the proportion of such food cultivation increases, the regional resource endowment will have difficulty supporting normal production. In this case, the negative effect of the SEFI on the proportion of WFC will be stronger. (iv) Driven by profits, some provinces import food and then dispatch it to adjacent regions. Thus, the SEFI has a spatial spillover effect on China’s food cultivation structure. This study verifies the applicability of factor endowments theory in the field of food trade, which not only extends the boundary of research into food import structure but also provides planning suggestions for China’s food cultivation structure.