Modern land use changes drive shifts in nutrient cycling and diatom assemblages in the Baltic Sea coastal zone: A millennial perspective with a case study from Gamlebyviken, Swedish east coast

This study aims to investigate and disentangle the impact of land use and climate variability on the Baltic Sea coastal zone from a millennial perspective. To assess the environmental status of the coastal zone we make use of siliceous microfossils (mainly diatoms), stable nitrogen and carbon isotopes, organic carbon accumulation rates, and lithological changes analyzed in a sediment core collected in Gamlebyviken, Swedish east coast, dated to cover the last 3000 years. Changes in land use and vegetation cover are modelled using pollen stratigraphical data to obtain the percentage coverage of coniferous woodland (Pinus and Picea), deciduous woodland, wetland (Cyperaceae), grassland (including Juniperus) and cropland (cereals) while changes in climatic conditions are assessed through well-documented climatic periods that have occurred in the Baltic Sea region. The reconstructed regional vegetation cover shows that already 3000 years ago, humans used the landscape for both animal husbandry (grasslands) and farming (cropland), but the impact on the Baltic coastal waters was minor. The diatom accumulation rates were quite high (similar to 3100-2600 cal yr BP) containing taxa indicative of high nutrient conditions/upwelling, and stable carbon isotopes show that the carbon was produced in the basin but did not result in elevated organic carbon accumulation rates. A gradual change to less marine conditions in Gamlebyviken from about 2500 to 1400 cal yr BP can be attributed to the ongoing land uplift which resulted in a more enclosed embayment with only a narrow inlet area today. The Medieval Climate Anomaly (1000-700 cal yr BP/950-1250 CE) is a time where extensive eutrophication is registered in the open Baltic Sea, but afforestation is recorded between 1000 and 500 cal yr BP and attributed to the expansion of spruce favored by land-use reorganization with a transition from a one-course rotation system to the three-course rotation system fully established in southern Sweden in the 13th century, and only minor environmental change is recorded in the coastal zone. The Little Ice Age is documented in our data between 400 and 250 cal yr BP/1550-1700 CE as a decrease in regional cropland (cereals) cover, possibly indicating years of poor crop harvest, and changes in the Baltic coastal zone are evidenced as low carbon and diatom accumulation rates, increase in benthic diatom taxa (low turbidity), and high abundance in diatom taxa associated with sea ice indicating a cold climate. The most significant changes occurred from about 100 cal yr BP/1850 CE up to present, with a maximum regional cover of grassland and cropland (ca. 35%) at the expense of deciduous woodland, and major changes indicative of a highly eutrophic environment recorded in the coastal zone. Organic carbon accumulation rates peaked in 1968 CE at approximately 134 g C m(2) yr(-1) before subsequently declining to present-day values of 53 g C m(2) yr(-1), mirroring a similar trend observed in diatom accumulation rates. The high organic carbon accumulation rate shows that deep unvegetated accumulation bottoms in the coastal Baltic Sea serve as carbon sinks and are worth exploring for their potential in mitigating climate change. Variation partitioning shows that 26% of the variance in the diatom assemblages is associated with land use changes. The variables grassland, cropland, and stable nitrogen isotopes are accordingly strong predictors of environmental change in the Baltic coastal zone as reflected by the diatom assemblages.