Prediction of land cover and analysis of landscape structure in southern region of Lake Biwa
2014
Fujii, Y. (Shinshu University, Nagano (Japan). Faculty of Engineering) | Shimadu, T.
In order to consider a broad array of future planning in local cities, we should focus on three important matters, which are to analyze the transition of land cover and landscape from the viewpoint of the regional characteristics, to predict the future land cover, and to understand the future landscape structure. In this paper, we formulated the prediction method of future land cover based upon the past two satellite data. By using this method, we predicted future land cover in three cities located in the southern region of Lake Biwa, whose population will be growing in the foreseeable future. Furthermore, analyzing quantitatively the regional landscape structure of that areas by using multiple landscape metrics, we investigated land cover changes of the areas from past to future in four different years. As a result, we found the concrete spatial changes of landscape, namely if the present tendency of socioeconomic situation and regional policy does not change, the individual urban areas will continue expanding and combining with each other, and the agricultural land and green space will gradually continue shrinking and decreasing as well.
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