The effects of resource variability on the demographic rates of black and white rhinoceroses

A dissertation submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science, to the Faculty of Science, School of Animal, Plant and Environmental Sciences, at the University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2023.

Given the importance of rhino survival and reproduction to conservation goals, the aim of the study was to investigate the effects of resource variability on the demographic rates of black (Diceros bicornis) and white (Ceratotherium simum) rhinos at Lapalala Wilderness. I used historical rhino-monitoring, rainfall and vegetation greenness data to investigate the vital rates of two rhino populations. I investigated population demographics (mainly density, growth rates, age and sex structure) and survival using stratified Cox models. Black and white rhino density peaked at 0.06 rhinos/km2 and 0.2 rhinos/km2 , respectively during the study period and was below the estimated maximum density for suitable rhino reserves. Average growth rate for the black rhinos was 4.784%, which was almost half of the white rhino’s rate of 8.861%. The survival of both species was stage-specific, and rainfall effects were similar for both species and age groups as low amounts of rainfall, which likely represent decreased forage availability, were associated with increased mortality risk. Decreasing greenness was also associated with increased mortality except with white rhino calves, where mortality increased with greenness. I suggest that this case might have been caused by their nutritional requirements: most grasses lose nutritional value as the season progresses (i.e., represented as increases in greenness values and so reduced access to high quality forage might affect mom’s body condition and her ability to produce nutritious milk, consequently resulting in increased mortality rates of calves. I also investigated the reproductive phenology (mainly conception and birth timing, age at primiparity and inter calving intervals) and birth sex ratios in relation to sex allocation theories. White rhinos conceived and calved at an earlier age compared to the black rhinos; mean age at primiparity for white and black rhinos was 9.448 years (8.467, 10.43) and 11.724 years (10.52, 12.927), respectively. Conceptions for both species peaked during the wet season and were associated with periods of high forage availability; however, births were asynchronous and occurred throughout the year. Effects of rainfall and greenness on age at first conception differed between species; the odds of having their first calf increased with rainfall, EVI and NDVI for white rhinos but decreased with EVI and NDVI for the black rhinos. Increases in wet-season integrated greenness during conception periods might indicate a shorter period of access to high quality forage for the black rhinos. Age at primiparity increased with density for both species because population density increases competition for resources, potentially making it difficult for females to accumulate the body mass and energy reserves needed to reproduce. Inter-calving intervals increased with rainfall, supporting the idea that excessive amounts of rainfall might result in lower forage quality, which then affects maternal body condition. In conclusion, vital rates of black and white rhinos are associated with resource availability as a function of environmental stochasticity and density, which in turn affects productivity and performance as climate change results in more variable conditions.

University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg’s Postgraduate Merit Award (PMA).

National Research Foundation (NRF).

MM2024