An Analysis of Earthquake Preparedness in Tehran with Emphasis on the Resilience Theory (Case Study of Tehran District 4)

Earthquake vulnerability is one of the most important challenges faced by metropolises in Iran. Earthquakes are the most unexpected disasters among various natural and unnatural hazards. They cannot be prevented in any special way, and so far no tools and technology have been able to predict their occurrence. In fact, unpreparedness in times of crisis, especially in earthquakes, causes vulnerability in different levels of a society and increases human and financial losses.   Therefore, it can be acknowledged that “assessing and measuring the level of preparedness” in order to improve the processes of crisis management cycle is a primary action that effectively reduces the effects and complications of manmade and natural crisis. In Tehran, however, this issue is still in a state of ambiguity The existence of numerous faults and the geographical distribution of earthquakes in Iran indicate that almost a vast area of this country, full of inhabitants, is at risk of earthquakes. Carpenter's definition of resilience, which has been accepted as a comprehensive definition in many studies, is: (1) the amount of damage that a system is able to absorb, without going out of balance; (2) the amount of ability of a system to organize and reorganize themselves in different conditions; and (3) the ability of the system to create and increase the learning capacity and strengthen adaptation to critical conditions. A resilient city is a city that has the components of readiness, strength, adaptability, stability and durability. In fact, the resilient city is a stable network of physical systems and human societies. Tehran, as the largest metropolis and the capital city of Iran, is at high risk of earthquakes. Therefore, the study aims to measure and analyze the level of earthquake preparedness in Tehran.  The different dimensions of this research, including physical, environmental, social, cultural, institutional, managerial and economic dimensions, were studied with the Resilience Theory.  In this research, the descriptive-analytical method with a survey approach has been emphasized to review and answer the research questions. Among the risk reduction programs, resilience can be considered as a more accurate and successful program due to its attention to social and economic dimensions. Due to the importance of the above principle and the vulnerability of Tehran, especially in areas with dilapidated structures such as parts of District 4, and due to the imminence of earthquake, there are two questions. Whether the city of Tehran is sufficiently prepared for earthquake? Considering the theory of resilience, how effective this preparedness is in different physical, social, economic and institutional and managerial dimensions? The statistical population studied in this study includes: managers, experts and crisis management experts working in District 4 of Tehran Municipality. After reviewing and analyzing the documents and opinions of managers and experts, which were obtained through questionnaire, the findings of this study showed that the level of social, institutional and managerial preparedness for earthquake in District 4 of Tehran is moderate, and the level of physical, environmental and economic preparedness is not good.