Intensifying Effects of Climate Change in Food Loss: A Threat to Food Security in Turkey
2023
Ahmed, Nihal | Areche, Franklin Ore | Cotrina Cabello, Guillermo Gomer | Córdova Trujillo, Pedro David | Sheikh, Adnan Ahmed | Abiad, Mohamad G. | Department of Nutrition and Food Sciences | Department of Agriculture | Laboratories for the Environment, Agriculture and Food (LEAF) | Faculty of Agricultural and Food Sciences (FAFS) | American University of Beirut
Turkey is increasingly concerned about the effects of climate change, weather unpredictability, and severe events on agricultural production, food loss, and livelihoods. Turkey has long struggled against climate variability and catastrophic climatic events to prevent further declines in agricultural output. This study assessed the risk of climate change in Turkey from the perspective of loss in food grains and food security domain considering exposure to extreme climate events using the data from 1991 to 2019. This paper makes a theoretical contribution to the literature by identifying the relationship between food waste and food import, food prices and economic growth. It also makes an empirical contribution by administering and econometrically analyzing the impact of the loss of food grains on the aforementioned independent variables. Policy implications for the current national agriculture policy were provided using the vector auto-regression (VAR) model and derivative analysis. Food grain loss negatively correlates with food security since it increases reliance on food imports from outside. Moreover, the losses in food supplies contributes greatly to price increases. The GDP growth rate, however, was shown to be a feeble instigator. Climate change threatens food security, and the country’s progress toward sustainable development objectives is hampered in general, particularly concerning no poverty and zero hunger goals. In conclusion, climate change and its associated factors harm Turkey’s food security and economy. © 2022 by the authors.
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