Analysing the most Important Variables Affecting Agricultural Water Security in Mazandaran Province

Introduction The shortage of freshwater resources is one of the primary crises the world faces, despite the constant availability of renewable water sources. As a result, the rising risks associated with water scarcity are a critical concern. The water crisis reduces crops production and negatively affects food security. Due to the increase in demand for food, agriculture section is under more pressure because of both water crisis and more demand for food. Agricultural sector has been also facing with water shortage due to climate changes caused by the more global warming and low precipitation. Water crisis and climate changes leading to a decrease in the crops production. Now, agriculture and livelihood of villagers has become unstable more than any time. Considering the importance of irrigated farming in Mazandaran province in the country's food security, the present study was conducted with the aim of identifying the most important variables that affecting water security in Mazandaran province.   Materials and Methods The statistical population of the research included 16 subject experts with research or executive experience in the fields related to water studies, water security and climate change. The selection of them was done in a purposeful way. The data collection tool was a researcher made questionnaire and the data collection method was face-to-face interview. At first, to identify the variables involved in water security a subject literature review and several semi-structured interviews with subject experts were conducted. Then, the experts were asked to evaluate the cross-effects of the identified variables through pairwise comparisons and in the form of the MICMAC questionnaire. Finally, the data were analysis using MICMAC software.   Results and Discussion According to the results, among the studied variables, "knowledge and environmental literacy of villagers" and "reduction of precipitation due to climate change" (input variables) are two important key variables that directly and indirectly affect water security and therefore should be considered. The variables "best management of appropriate farm operations", "volume and diversity of water resources" and "good management and governance of agricultural water" are intermediate variables, with high impact and high dependence. Based on the direct influence network intensity of the key variables involved in water security, variables such as “best management of suitable farm operations”, “good management and governance of agricultural water”, “the degree of resilience of farmers to adapt to climate change” play a central and sensitive role. Based on the indirect relationships, “best management of appropriate farm operations”, “the degree of resilience of farmers to adapt to climate change”, “risk management of ecological hazards and climate change” have the greatest indirect effect on other variables and should be considered by policy makers and planners in this field.   Conclusion Water crisis is a major challenge for agricultural activities and consequently for food security. Considering the vital role that Mazandaran province plays in the agricultural products production and as a result food security, the present study examined the most important variables affecting food security. The findings of this study showed that "good management and governance of agricultural water" has the most direct impact on water crisis management. Good water governance can be taken into consideration with the relative strengthening and synergistic participation of public and private sectors and non-governmental organizations in line with the planning and implementation of food security policy with the water-energy-food nexus approach. The role of increasing the environmental knowledge and literacy of villagers by providing effective educational-promotional services such as farm filed school is very important on the farmer's resilience and adaptability. On the other hand, variables such as good water management and governance, development of new irrigation systems and technologies, zoning of agricultural lands and the explanation of the appropriate cultivation pattern for each zone (such as planting crops with low water demand and high added value include medicinal plants) are undeniable impact on the livelihood resilience of the farmer's family and adaptation to climate change conditions. Diversify the livelihood resources of farming households with the participation of household women, promoting climate-oriented businesses that are compatible with climate changes (such as agricultural tourism and handicrafts), using drought-resistant species, changing the date of cultivation, developing greenhouse cultivation, medicinal plants and modernization of irrigation, change of history and cultivation pattern play important roles on the resilience of farmers to adapt climate change.