Dynamics of Ecosystem Services Driven by Land Use Change Under Natural and Anthropogenic Driving Trajectories in the Kaduna River Basin, Nigeria

Land use changes under natural and anthropogenic driving factors have spatiotemporal ecological consequences, and these need to be identified to protect biodiversity and the robustness of ecosystems. While driving factor research has mainly focused on the impacts of univariate statistical correlation, the analysis of the natural and anthropogenic compound driving factors and the spatiotemporal correspondence between the dynamic characteristics of ecological function evolution and the natural and anthropogenic driving processes has been ignored. On the basis of land use change, spatiotemporal ecosystem services and natural and anthropogenic driving process trajectories were linked and characterized in this study. In the Kaduna River Basin (KRB), Nigeria, an important river basin the country, land use change during 2000–2020 caused by both natural and anthropogenic processes significantly changed the ecosystem services. The single anthropogenic driving trajectories were 1.3 times greater than the single natural driving trajectories and 2.02 times greater than the compound driving trajectories. Carbon storage has increased by 15.6% (8.5 × 10⁶ t) and is growing at a decreasing rate, whereas urbanization and reverse succession are the main drivers of carbon stock decline. Water yield has steadily increased but is threatened by the decline induced by restoration, reverse succession, and urbanization. Habitat quality initially increased (0.03) but then decreased (0.01), with urbanization and reclamation being the main drivers of its degradation throughout the study period. This study integrates land use, driving processes, and ecosystem services into a cohesive analytical framework, thereby overcoming the limitations of previous research that examined land use in conjunction with each of the other two elements separately. New developments and methodological steps in watershed management can indicate directions to reconcile and mitigate the conflict between socioeconomic growth and improved ecological functioning in watershed ecosystems.