The estimation method is the primary source of uncertainty in cropland nitrate leaching estimates in China
2025
Xingshuai Tian | Huitong Yu | Jiahui Cong | Yulong Yin | Kai He | Zihan Wang | Zhenling Cui
Cropland nitrate leaching is the major nitrogen (N) loss pathway, and it contributes significantly to water pollution. However, cropland nitrate leaching estimates show great uncertainty due to variations in input datasets and estimation methods. Here, we presented a re-evaluation of Chinese cropland nitrate leaching, and identified and quantified the sources of uncertainty by integrating three cropland area datasets, three N input datasets, and three estimation methods. The results revealed that nitrate leaching from Chinese cropland averaged 6.7±0.6 Tg N yr−1 in 2010, ranging from 2.9 to 15.8 Tg N yr−1 across 27 different estimates. The primary contributor to the uncertainty was the estimation method, accounting for 45.1%, followed by the interaction of N input dataset and estimation method at 24.4%. The results of this study emphasize the need for adopting a robust estimation method and improving the compatibility between the estimation method and N input dataset to effectively reduce uncertainty. This analysis provides valuable insights for accurately estimating cropland nitrate leaching and contributes to ongoing efforts that address water pollution concerns.
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