Farmers’ decision-making dynamics in bio-based fertilizer adoption: an agent-based model

Abstract Bio-based fertilizer production can provide a technological solution to recover nutrients from organic waste streams while simultaneously offering an alternative to mineral fertilizers. Several researchers have investigated farmer preferences regarding bio-based fertilizers, but how bio-based fertilizer adoption might evolve with changing social and economic contexts remains uncertain. This study takes on an agent-based approach coupled with a linear programming framework to account for rational and behavioral factors. To explore the impact of parameters such as social networks and increases in energy prices on the adoption of bio-based fertilizers, we consider the decision-making process of farmers and the specifications of two main business models: stewardship based on farmers groupings and functionality-based existing intermunicipal companies. Results show both business models can be viable and their resulting bio-based fertilizers can be preferred by farmers; however, their attractiveness is conditioned to different parameter configurations. For example, when energy prices increase, farmers may prefer a functionality business model led by an intermunicipal company rather than leading the production themselves. Regarding the farmers’ decision-making dynamics, results provide insights into the distribution of decision strategies, showing that farmers end up either repeating their previous decisions or economically optimizing their fertilizer use. Overall, based on the results, we argue that there is a promising case for anaerobically digesting and composting crop residues in cooperation with waste treatment companies. The study strengthens the idea that bio-based fertilizers can play a role in conventional Flemish horticulture. The findings will be of interest to policymakers, informing them about the relevant parameters to be considered in the design of policies targeting nutrient circularity or identifying alternatives to mineral fertilizers and manure.