Temperature Prediction Model for Horizontal Shale Gas Wells Considering Stress Sensitivity
2025
Jianli Liu | Fangqing Wen | Hu Han | Daicheng Peng | Qiao Deng | Dong Yang
In the production process of horizontal wells, wellbore temperature data play a critical role in predicting shale gas production. This study proposes a coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) mathematical model that accounts for the influence of the stress field when determining the distribution of wellbore temperature. The model integrates the effects of heat transfer in the temperature field, gas transport in the seepage field, and the mechanical deformation of shale induced by the stress field. The coupled model is solved using the finite difference method. The model was validated against field data from shale gas production, and sensitivity analyses were conducted on seven key parameters related to the stress field. The findings indicate that the stress field exerts an influence on both the wellbore temperature distribution and the total gas production. Neglecting the stress field effects may lead to an overestimation of shale gas production by up to 12.9%. Further analysis reveals that reservoir porosity and Langmuir volume are positively correlated with wellbore temperature, while permeability, Young&rsquo:s modulus, Langmuir pressure, the coefficient of thermal expansion, and adsorption strain are negatively correlated with wellbore temperature.
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