Political Economy of the Wheat Sector in Egypt: Seed Systems, Varietal Adoption, and Impacts

Wheat has been an important food staple in Egypt from time immemorial and remains one of the most (if not the single most) important food security crops in the country. Currently, wheat provides one-third (35 percent) of the typical Egyptian’s total daily calorie intake. On average, the crop represents about 10 percent of the total value of agricultural production and about 20 percent of all agricultural imports, which depicts the country’s insurmountable food security challenge. Over the last six decades, the wheat sector in Egypt has exhibited an increasing trend from 0.58 million ha with a productivity of 2.5 tons ha-1 and production of 1.44 million tons in 1961 to a high of 1.39 million ha, a productivity of 6.9 tons ha-1, and total production of 9.84 million tons in 2021. Despite these significant achievements, Egypt remains number one globally in terms of the volume and value of its wheat imports. The main drivers of the country’s increasing wheat dependency are rapid population growth, increased per-capita consumption, and other alternative uses of wheat. Cognizant of these facts, over the years, debate on Egyptian agrifood systems revolved around ‘wheat self-sufficiency’. Anchored on three major pillars, several strategies have been developed for reducing dependency on imports of wheat: (i) expansion of area under wheat production; (ii) increased productivity per unit area through the generation and dissemination of new wheat varieties and associated technologies and innovations; and iii) reduction of demand for wheat by encouraging dietary diversification and replacing wheat with alternative grains in bread production. The Sustainable Agricultural Development Strategy Towards 2030 aspired to attain a wheat self-sufficiency level of 80.8 percent (i.e., wheat production of 15.1 million tons) by increasing wheat area to 1.76 million ha and productivity to 8.57 tons ha-1. Wheat self-sufficiency is expected to continue being the driving force shaping the future of wheat in Egypt. Against the backdrop of limited natural resources and climate change, it is imperative for the country to also explore alternative options to achieving self-sufficiency in wheat.