Spatiotemporal Patterns of Algal Blooms in Lake Bosten Driven by Climate and Human Activities: A Multi-Source Remote-Sensing Perspective for Sustainable Water-Resource Management

Algal blooms pose a serious threat not only to the lake ecosystem of Lake Bosten but also by negatively impacting its rapidly developing fisheries and tourism industries. This study focuses on Lake Bosten as the research area and utilizes multi-source remote sensing imagery from Landsat TM/ETM+/OLI and Sentinel-2 MSI. The Adjusted Floating Algae Index (AFAI) was employed to extract algal blooms in Lake Bosten from 2004 to 2023, analyze their spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and driving factors, and construct a Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) network model to predict the spatial distribution of algal-bloom frequency. The stability of the model was assessed through temporal segmentation of historical data combined with temporal cross-validation. The results indicate that (1) during the study period, algal blooms in Lake Bosten were predominantly of low-risk level, with low-risk bloom coverage accounting for over 8% in both 2004 and 2005. The intensity of algal blooms in summer and autumn was significantly higher than in spring. The coverage of medium- and high-risk blooms reached 2.74% in the summer of 2004 and 3.03% in the autumn of 2005, while remaining below 1% in spring. (2) High-frequency algal bloom areas were mainly located in the western and northwestern parts of the lake, and the central region experienced significantly more frequent blooms during 2004&ndash:2013 compared to 2014&ndash:2023, particularly in spring and summer. (3) The LSTM model achieved an R2 of 0.86, indicating relatively stable performance. The prediction results suggest a continued low frequency of algal blooms in the future, reflecting certain achievements in sustainable water-resource management. (4) The interactions among meteorological factors exhibited significant influence on bloom formation, with the q values of temperature and precipitation interactions both exceeding 0.5, making them the most prominent meteorological driving factors. Monitoring of sewage discharge and analysis of agricultural and industrial expansion revealed that human activities have a more direct impact on the water quality of Lake Bosten. In addition, changes in lake area and water environment were mainly influenced by anthropogenic factors, ultimately making human activities the primary driving force behind the spatiotemporal variations of algal blooms. This study improved the timeliness of algal-bloom monitoring through the integration of multi-source remote sensing and successfully predicted the future spatial distribution of bloom frequency, providing a scientific basis and decision-making support for the sustainable management of water resources in Lake Bosten.