Estimation of Milk Casein Content Using Machine Learning Models and Feeding Simulations
2025
Bence Tarr | János Tőzsér | István Szabó | András Revoly
Milk quality has a growing importance for farmers as component-based pricing becomes more widespread. Food quality and precision manufacturing techniques demand consistent milk composition. Udder health, general cow condition, environmental factors, and especially feed composition all influence milk quality. The large volume of routinely collected milk data can be used to build prediction models that estimate valuable constituents from other measured parameters. In this study, casein was chosen as the target variable because of its high economic value. We developed a multiple linear-regression model and a feed-forward neural network model to estimate casein content from twelve commonly recorded milk traits. Evaluated on an independent test set, the regression model achieved R<sup>2</sup> = 0.86 and RMSE = 0.018%, with mean bias = +0.003% and slope bias = −0.10, whereas the neural network improved performance to R<sup>2</sup> = 0.924 and RMSE = 0.084%. In silico microgreen inclusion from 0% to 100% of dietary dry matter raised the predicted casein concentration from 2.662% to 3.398%, a relative increase of 27.6%. To extend practical applicability, a simulation module was created to explore how microgreen supplementation might modify milk casein levels, enabling virtual testing of dietary strategies before in vivo trials. Together, the predictive models and the microgreen simulation form a cost-effective, non-invasive decision-support tool that can accelerate diet optimization and improve casein management in precision dairy production.
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