Price Transmission in China’s Penaeus vannamei Imports

The import volume of Chinese Penaeus vannamei has been steadily increasing, prompting significant scholarly interest in its price dynamics. This study examines the differential price transmission mechanisms between Chinese domestic markets and primary import sources (India and Ecuador) using Penaeus vannamei as a case study. Utilizing a comprehensive dataset of CIF prices from India and Ecuador and monthly farm gate prices of domestic Penaeus vannamei from 2012 to 2023, this research employs Engle–Granger (E–G) cointegration analysis and vector autoregression (VAR) modeling. The findings reveal that while the long-term trend of domestic prices aligns with import prices, domestic prices exhibit greater seasonal volatility due to the shrimp’s fixed growth cycle and Spring Festival consumption patterns. Additionally, price fluctuations in Ecuador and India significantly influence Chinese prices unidirectionally, with this impact strengthening 1-month postlag and rising steadily over time. Based on these insights, we propose that domestic shrimp farmers adjust harvesting schedules, develop processing, extend the industrial chain, prioritize innovation and integration, and shift to high-value or branded products to reduce import competition. Processors and traders should optimize procurement and processing through flexible pricing based on lagged international price changes to enhance supply chain resilience and profit margins. Policymakers should implement intelligent monitoring, foster public–private partnerships, and encourage international cooperation to stabilize domestic prices and enhance China’s global pricing influence. Industry associations must develop early warning systems, establish collective purchasing groups, and launch marketing campaigns to improve market responsiveness and overall value chain competitiveness. These measures will facilitate the stable development of the Penaeus vannamei industry, enhance its market competitiveness, and enable it to play a more proactive role in global pricing.