Changes in the Distribution of Precipitation with the Potential to Cause Extreme Events in the State of Rio de Janeiro for a Future Climate Change Scenario
2025
Wanderley Philippe Cardoso Ferreira | Henderson Silva Wanderley | Rafael Coll Delgado
Climate change can alter the frequency and magnitude of extreme precipitation events (EPEs), both in terms of scarcity and excess, impacting society as a whole. The aim of this study was, therefore, to identify changes in the distribution of precipitation with the potential to cause extreme events in the state of Rio de Janeiro (SRJ) for current and future climate change scenarios. Climate change indices were selected that refer to changes in the distribution and magnitude of rainfall events for the state of Rio de Janeiro. The analysis was carried out for the historical period between 2000 and 2020 and for future climate change scenarios between the years 2021 and 2100. The analysis for future climate change scenarios was carried out using data from climate models of the general circulation of the atmosphere (CMIP-6) for future climate change scenarios SSP 4.5 and SSP 8.5. Total annual precipitation in the SRJ by the end of the 21st century will be reduced by between 24% and 47% for the intermediate and pessimistic scenarios, respectively. The projections also indicate an increase in the number of consecutive dry days, which could be greater than 130% in the pessimistic scenario, and a reduction in consecutive wet days. An increase in the number of humid and extremely humid days is also projected for the SRJ, which could increase the EPEs.
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