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МОДЕЛЬ ПРОГНОЗНОГО ОБЕСПЕЧЕНИЯ НАСЕЛЕНИЯ ОСНОВНЫМИ ВИДАМИ ПРОДОВОЛЬСТВИЯ В СООТВЕТСТВИИ С РАЦИОНАЛЬНЫМИ НОРМАМИ ЕГО ПОТРЕБЛЕНИЯ MODEL FOR PREDICTIVE PURPOSE OF POPULATION BY MAJOR FOODS IN ACCORDANCE WITH RATIONAL NORMS OF ITS CONSUMPTION
2018
Обеспечение населения доступным безопасным продовольствием приобретает все большую актуальность в связи с ростом населения планеты, обострением социально-экономических отношений между государствами, увеличением количества экологических проблем и замещением натуральных органических продуктов питания снеками, продуктами, содержащими искусственные компоненты и ГМО, функциональными продуктами питания.В статье рассмотрены вопросы планирования мероприятий региональных властей по обеспечению населения основными видами продовольствия, расчет потребности которого составлен в соответствии с рациональными нормами потребления пищевых продуктов, отвечающих современным требованиям здорового питания.На основе линейного программирования составлена модель прогнозного обеспечения населения основными видами продуктов питания на период 2018-2020 годов. Данные по составленной модели могут быть пролонгированы и откорректированы при получении статистических показателей 2016, 2017 годов и уточнении планового количества численности населения в рассматриваемом периоде.В результате исследования получены прогнозные значения необходимого объема продовольствия для населения Иркутской области. Предложены базовые компоненты механизма взаимодействия всех заинтересованных субъектов продовольственного рынка и комплекс условий для осуществления перспективных направлений механизма формирования и реализации продовольственной политики в соответствии с заявленными целями.Социальная эффективность при достижении предложенных в работе результативных показателей будет определяться увеличением продолжительности жизни населения, снижением заболеваемости, повышением качества жизни у страдающих от заболеваний, связанных с нерациональным питанием, и отношением полученных благоприятных социальных результатов к затратам для их достижения. При этом экономическая эффективность выразится оценкой влияния достигнутых в рамках реализации программных мероприятий результатов на формирование валового продукта, повышение производительности труда и обеспечение динамики экономического роста. Providing the population with affordable safe food is becoming increasingly important due to the growing population of the planet, the aggravation of socio-economic relations between states, the increase in the number of environmental problems and the replacement of natural organic food with snacks, products containing artificial components and GMOs, and functional foods.The article discusses the planning of measures taken by the regional authorities to provide the population with basic types of food, the calculation of the needs of which is compiled in accordance with rational norms for the consumption of food products that meet modern requirements for healthy nutrition.On the basis of linear programming, a model of predictive provision of the population with basic types of food products for the period 2018-2020 was compiled. The data on the compiled model can be prolonged and corrected when the statistical indicators of 2016, 2017 are obtained and the planned number of population in the period under review is specified.As a result of the study, the forecasted values of the required volume of food for the population of the Irkutsk region were obtained. The basic components of the mechanism of interaction of all interested subjects of the food market and a set of conditions for the implementation of promising directions of the mechanism for the formation and implementation of food policy in accordance with the stated goals are proposed.Social effectiveness in achieving the performance indicators proposed in the work will be determined by increasing the life expectancy of the population, reducing morbidity, improving the quality of life of those suffering from diseases associated with unsustainable nutrition, and the ratio of the resulting favorable social results to the costs to achieve them, while economic efficiency will be expressed by an estimate The impact of the results achieved in the implementation of program activities on the formation of the gross product, and Vyshen productivity and ensuring the dynamics of economic growth.
اظهر المزيد [+] اقل [-]Formation of a model of lettuce (<i>Lactuca sativa</i> L.) variety of the Batavia type for hydroponic cultivation
2024
M. V. Kovalchuk | M. M. Tsiunel
Relevance. Currently, there is a tendency to increase the volume of lettuce cultivation in hydroponics. Such specific conditions for growing lettuce hydroponically as high humidity in the root zone, different levels of illumination throughout the year and specific mineral nutrition, dictate a number of necessary characteristics that varieties should possess. In addition, the lettuce variety for hydroponics should consistently give high yield and have good consumer qualities. Accordingly, it is necessary to carry out selection separately for specific hydroponic conditions. And for theoretical justification of the selection of lettuce varieties for this technology and increasing the efficiency of the breeding process, it is necessary to form a model of the variety, which was the goal of this research.Methods. The 13 most common lettuce varieties were research: 8 light green and 5 dark green Batavia. The morphological characteristics of plants in the phase of industrial ripeness were described and the biometric traits of plants were determined.Results. Based on research in 2021-2023 the 13 most commonly hydroponically grown lettuce varieties of the Batavia variety have been defined as the variety model criteria for hydroponics. The characteristics of a leaf rosette, leaf blade, indicators of early ripening and productivity inherent in these varieties were identified, and a model of the variety was formed on their basis.
اظهر المزيد [+] اقل [-]Geoeconomic modelling: southwestern trend of vegetable growing in Russia
2024
T. Yu. Shabanov
Relevance. Modern globalization, internationalization, regional competitive differentiation actualize geoeconomic modeling methods for geopolitical planning, management and control. The novelty of the proposed solutions is the proposed concept, based on the translation of the ideas of theoretical mechanics into economics.Methodology. Considering the annual values of statistical indicators of territorial concentrates as a system of geographically distributed objects (subjects of the Russian Federation), it is possible to determine the geographic barycenter. Knowing the values of the geocoordinates of the barycenter, it is possible to determine the tendencies and trend of the barycenter movement as an indicator of the dynamics of the system under consideration through the analysis of the dynamics of these coordinates. Based on Russtat data on the annual gross harvest of agricultural crops (vegetables), population by constituent entities of the Russian Federation for the period 1991-2021, data on the coordinates of the administrative centers of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, the values of the geographic coordinates of the barycenter of vegetable growing in Russia were calculated.Results. For 2021, the geographic coordinates of the barycenter of vegetable growing in Russia are 50.30° N and 49.49° E with an average regional value with an average regional annual vegetable har-vest of 1722.52 million centners/year and fluctuations in the coordinates of the barycenter in the zone of 3-4 geographic degrees or three hundred territorial kilometers with a pronounced south-west trend Analysis of the dynamics of the barycenter for the period 1991-2021. will allow to reveal a slight shift of the vegetable growing barycenter to the south by 3.5 degrees with an increase in the average regional vegetable harvest by 124.11 million centners per year for each degree (or the all-Russian by more than 9,500 million centners per year for each degree to the south), a slight shift of the vegetable growing barycenter to the west by 4.5 degrees with an increase in the average regional vegetable har-vest by 86.5 million centners per year per degree (or the All-Russian by more than 6,660 million cent-ners per year for each degree to the west). For the period 1991-2021, two opposite trends in the devel-opment of vegetable growing are distinguished. In the period from 1991 to 2000, the movement of the coordinate of the vegetable growing barycenter went in the direction of the northeast of Russia, in the period 2000 to 2021 -- on the contrary, to the southwest.The conclusion is made about the existence of a relationship between the development of vegetable growing and the geopolitics of Russia in the period under review. The obtained method and results can be used in strategic state management of agricultural production in Russia.
اظهر المزيد [+] اقل [-]MODEL FOR PREDICTIVE PURPOSE OF POPULATION BY MAJOR FOODS IN ACCORDANCE WITH RATIONAL NORMS OF ITS CONSUMPTION
2018
A. A. Luschik
Providing the population with affordable safe food is becoming increasingly important due to the growing population of the planet, the aggravation of socio-economic relations between states, the increase in the number of environmental problems and the replacement of natural organic food with snacks, products containing artificial components and GMOs, and functional foods. The article discusses the planning of measures taken by the regional authorities to provide the population with basic types of food, the calculation of the needs of which is compiled in accordance with rational norms for the consumption of food products that meet modern requirements for healthy nutrition. On the basis of linear programming, a model of predictive provision of the population with basic types of food products for the period 2018-2020 was compiled. The data on the compiled model can be prolonged and corrected when the statistical indicators of 2016, 2017 are obtained and the planned number of population in the period under review is specified. As a result of the study, the forecasted values of the required volume of food for the population of the Irkutsk region were obtained. The basic components of the mechanism of interaction of all interested subjects of the food market and a set of conditions for the implementation of promising directions of the mechanism for the formation and implementation of food policy in accordance with the stated goals are proposed. Social effectiveness in achieving the performance indicators proposed in the work will be determined by increasing the life expectancy of the population, reducing morbidity, improving the quality of life of those suffering from diseases associated with unsustainable nutrition, and the ratio of the resulting favorable social results to the costs to achieve them, while economic efficiency will be expressed by an estimate The impact of the results achieved in the implementation of program activities on the formation of the gross product, and Vyshen productivity and ensuring the dynamics of economic growth.
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