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AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF FISH FOOD SECURITY IN EGYPT
2020
Youness A.S.
The problem of fish food security is represented in insufficient strategic stocks of fish, especially in light of the increasing demand for fish, and lower production than consumption. The research mainly targeted the study of the situation of fish food security in Egypt, in addition to a set of sub-goals, which are the most important that the estimation of both the strategic stock of fish and fish food security coefficient in Egypt, studying of the most important factors affecting fish food security, studying of future expectations for fish food security, This is in addition to studying the problems that Obstruct the continued increase in fish production. The research relied on achieving goals on the use of qualitative statistical methods and economic equations for estimating both strategic stocks and security coefficient for fish. As Quantitative statistical methods were used, which are represented in using the simple and multiple regression method to estimate the functions of consumption, production, import and export of Egyptian fish, as well as food security coefficient in order to determine the most important variables that affect it by building an econometric model that explains the determinants of food security of fish. The double logarithmic model was the best model used in terms of economic logic and statistical significance, and Autoregressive and Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was used to forecast production, consumption, imports and food security coefficients for fish until 2025. In addition to using the statistical method, One-way Anova- Analysis of Variance, to test the differences between a number of independent groups that represent problems that impede the continued increase in fish production, as well as the use of the least significant difference method (L.S.D) to arrange the elements of each problem. By estimating the growth rate of fish production and consumption, the fish food gap and the average per capita share, it was found that the growth rate of each of them took an increasing general trend during the study period, where the annual growth rate is estimated at 5.4%, 4.9%, 2.8%, and 2.7% for each of them, respectively. It was also found that the quantity of the surplus in fish attained about 0.9 thousand tons on average during the study period, and this surplus is very small, not enough consumption per day. It is also clear that the fish food security coefficient reached about 0.00073 on average during the period (20002018) and this indicates a decrease in the fish food security rate. The forecast values of the fish food security coefficient have shown that the fish food security coefficient tends to decrease from about 0.00076 in 2019 to about 0.00073 in 2025. And by studying the most important variables that affect fish food security in Egypt through the three basic functions, which are the fish demand function, the fish supply function, and the fish food security coefficient function, of the Simultaneous model, according to the economic logic and statistical significance, Increase in both national income (x13), imports of fish (Y3t), local production of fish (Y1t) by 1%, the food security coefficient of fish increases by 0.04%, 0.102%, 0.49% for each of them respectively, and when increasing Consumption (Y2t) by 1%, the fish food security coefficient decreases by 0.67%. This has proven the significance of the variables at the level of significance 0.01, as it turns out that by increasing exports (Y4t) by 1%, the food security coefficient decreases by 0.01% and this decrease is statistically significant at the level of significance 0.05. A stratified random sample was chosen according to the cognitive and functional level, with the problems and obstacles of continuation of increasing fish production in Egypt. The sample was of those interested in the field of fish wealth. The problems were identified and divided into five categories which are: environmental problems, financing and production problems, marketing problems, problems related to scientific research, administrative problems. The study resulted in several recommendations, the most important of which are: Increasing the expansion of culture operations in floating marine cages. Increasing investment orientation for fish production from its various sources and providing financial support to small fish producers. Close control of the various pollution image processes of natural resources, overfishing, offensive fishing, and fishing fry and limiting their spread to preserve biological stocks.
اظهر المزيد [+] اقل [-]THE DEMAND FOR EGYPTIAN CITRUS IN THE GLOBAL MARKETS
2020
Omnia M. Shahin*
The trend currently in most countries of theworld, whether developed or developing, is how toobtain the largest possible amount of gains in lightof the state's available resources and the methodsof production used and how to manage those resources in light of an investment climate consistentwith those variables, and no country can live Isolated from all other countries in the world, whetherthat country is rich in resources and has a surplusin production and wants to spend it or it needs othercountries to obtain a sufficient amount of a commodity that is sufficient for the needs of its population.In spite of the great export importance of Egyptian citrus crop and its occupation is the first in thelist of Egyptian agricultural exports, and Egyptranked third globally in its export, but its exportshave been characterized by fluctuation and instability during the period (2018-2001), which leads tofluctuating returns from these masts, Which requires the necessity of identifying the determinantsof external demand for these exports in variousglobal markets to provide the necessary means fordeveloping these exports and promoting them andmaintaining their current markets and opening newmarkets for them and in light of the study problemand in an attempt to identify the most importantvariables Local and international influencing the demand for Egyptian citrus, and the study used a simultaneous multi-equation model, where he explained that the most influencing factors on the average Saudi per capita share of Egyptian citrus exports is the export price to Syria, and the exportprice to Jordan, as the value of "F" indicates the significance The statistically estimated equation is atthe level of 0.05, and the adjusted coefficient of determination indicates that about 95% of the changesin the average per capita share of Egyptian exportsare due to the above-mentioned independent variables. The results of the statistical analysis alsoshowed that the most influencing factors on the average Russian per capita share The Egyptian citrusDorat is the export price of Turkey citrus, and theaverage Russian per capita national income, as thevalue of "F" indicates the significance of the statistically equivalent equation at the level of 0.05, andthe value of the adjusted coefficient of determinationindicates that about 84% of the changes in the average per capita of exports The Egyptian citrus fruitof Russia is attributed to the aforementioned independent variables.
اظهر المزيد [+] اقل [-]CURRENT AND PROSPECTIVE ROLE OF AGRICULTURAL EXTENSION IN THE CULTIVATION OF VEGETABLES UNDER GREENHOUSES IN EL- BUSTAN AREA, BEHIRA GOVERNORATE
2020
Olfat S.H. Abou shahin
The main objective of this study to identify the current and prospective role of agricultural extension in the field of vegetable cultivation under greenhouse in Al-Noubaria area of Beheira Governorate. Questionnaire through personal interviews was used to collect data from 196 farmers representing research samples. Percentages, arithmetic mean, the frequency tables, standard deviation, simple correlation coefficient (person) and the regression coefficient were used to analyze data. The research results showed that: The most of farmers 81.6% had low and medium level of knowledge related to the main practices of agriculture in Greenhouse 94.9% of farmers had low and medium levels of implementation of the main practices under greenhouse. 74% of farmers were of low and medium awareness of the role of agriculture extension. There is a significant correlation between the knowledge level of the respondents to cultivating vegetables under greenhouses as a dependent variable, and between the educational level, the degree of trend towards export of greenhouse products, the degree of participation in community organizations, the degree of satisfaction with work in greenhouse, the degree of exposure to sources of information on vegetable cultivation under Greenhouse, the degree of openness to the outside world and the role of agricultural extension, respectively as independent variables. There is a significant correlation between the degree of the executive level of the respondents by planting vegetables under greenhouse as a dependent variable and between the educational level of the respondents and the degree of exposure to sources of information on growing vegetables under greenhouse, the trend towards export and the role of agricultural extension provided to the respondents as independent variables. The educational level, the trend towards export, the degree of openness to the outside world, the degree of participation in various societal organizations, the degree of satisfaction with work under greenhouse, the degree of exposure to sources of information on growing vegetables under greenhouse, and the role provided by the agricultural extension to farmers under greenhouse as Variables responsible for the interpretation of 30,2% in the overall variance of the general knowledge level of the respondents cultivating vegetables under greenhouse. The educational level, the trend towards export, the degree of exposure to sources of information about growing vegetables under greenhouse, and the role provided by agricultural extension to vegetable farmers under greenhouse, variables responsible for the interpretation of 26.7% in the overall variation of the executive level of respondents to the practices of growing vegetables under greenhouse. The most important problems faced by farmers investigated in greenhouse cultivation were the high costs of greenhouse construction, the high incidence of fungal diseases, and the difficulty of conducting integrated pest control in greenhouse. The prospective role of the agricultural extension in the field of vegetable cultivation under greenhouse from the viewpoint of the respondents, the presence of adequate and technical support for the agricultural extension in the field of growing vegetables under greenhouse and how to manage greenhouse.
اظهر المزيد [+] اقل [-]THE DETERMINANTS OF EXTERNAL DEMAND FOR EXPORTS OF EGYPTIAN FROZEN VEGETABLE
2020
Basma M.M Mehiesin
The problem of research is facing Egyptian exports of frozen vegetables in general, and the mixture of frozen vegetables in particular, with intensecompetition in foreign markets, which requiresstudying this problem and proposing appropriatesolutions to it. Therefore, the research aimed tostudy means of developing and increasing agricultural exports of Egyptian frozen vegetables. Theresearch focused on the exports of the Egyptianfrozen vegetable mixture, as it was found that itranked first among the total Egyptian exports offrozen vegetables during the period (2014-2018),where it represented about 70.1% of the totalquantities.The research has reached some conclusions,including:The time trend equations for the quantity, valueand price of Egyptian exports for both frozen vegetables and frozen vegetable mixtures were estimated during the period (2004-2018). It turned outthat the ratio of the increase to the average in boththe quantity and value of exports of frozen vegetables mixture is greater than that in the total frozenvegetables. By studying the geographical distribution, the most important importing countries for theEgyptian frozen vegetable mixture were identifiedduring the period (2014-2018), namely Saudi Arabia, America, France.By studying the market share index of the mostimportant importing markets for frozen vegetablesmixture shows that Egypt occupies the first positionin the list of countries exporting frozen vegetablesmixtures in the Saudi market during the period(2010-2012) with an amount of exports estimatedat about 4.9 thousand tons and a market share ofabout 72.2%.By studying The External of individual demandfor the Egyptian frozen vegetable mixture in theSaudi market shows that an increase in the priceof Egypt by 1% leads to a decrease in Egypt's exports to Saudi Arabia by 0.89%. A 1% decrease inIndia’s price leads to a decrease in Egypt’s exportsby 0.89, meaning that there is a significant impactof price changes and that India is a competitor toEgypt within the Saudi market.The research recommended1. Study the non-price competitive reasons, asEgypt has a competitive price advantage, yetits market share in the Saudi market is decreasing (it may be due to taste, packaging,export facilities, etc.).2. The competitive advantage between Egypt andIndia is decreasing more than the other twocompeting countries (Spain, Belgium).3. Focus on studying the reasons for India's increasing competitiveness of Egyptian exports.4. There is an effect of price competition, especially with Mexican and Chinese exports, and itis recommended that this price competitive advantage be improved in favor of Egypt.5. Italy is the largest competitor in the Frenchmarket (it has a significant price impact onEgypt's exports, followed by Spain).
اظهر المزيد [+] اقل [-]EXTERNAL DEMAND DETERMINANTS FOR EGYPTIAN FROZEN VEGETABLES
2020
Sahar S.S. Abdl Elrazek*
The frozen vegetable industry in Egypt is one of the most important industries that contribute to the provision of vegetables throughout the year to the consumer, and the Egyptian frozen vegetables value of exports of preserved food industries as the may reach $86.61 million on average for the period (2011-2015) with relative importance of 47.68%. The problem statement of research represent that the agricultural production in general and from vegetables and fruits in particular and the high percentage of lost and damaged, which threatens the development of Egyptian exports of these products if the export of Egyptian manufactured products does not keep pace with its international counterparts, Therefore, the research aimed to estimate the external demand for Egyptian frozen vegetables, and the determinants of that demand in the most important import markets of Egypt during the period (2007-2018). The research has reached some conclusions, including That Saudi Arabia, The United Arab Emirates, Jordan, the United States of America, Italy, and France are the most important countries importing Egyptian frozen vegetables, where the percentage of Egypt's exports of frozen vegetables to these countries amounted to about 57.1% of the total amount of Egyptian frozen vegetables exported during the period (2014-2018) Egypt's exports of frozen vegetables to these countries amounted to about 55.6% of the total value of Egyptian frozen vegetable exports for the same period. The high price elasticity of Egyptian frozen vegetables for the UAE market compared to the Saudi market with a value of about 1.5, 0.46 respectively, which means that the individual demand for frozen Egyptian vegetables for the Emirates is elastic, while the individual demand for frozen Egyptian vegetables for Saudi Arabia is inelastic. This reflects the importance of Egyptian frozen vegetables in the Saudi market and deal with them as a necessary commodity at a time when this importance is diminishing in the UAE market, where dealing with frozen Egyptian vegetables as a luxury goods. The same table also shows the increase cross elastisates of the Italian market by about 2.3 compared to the Saudi market, where the cross elasticity of those markets where 2.3, 1.3 respectively, which means that the degree of competition in the Italian market is higher than the rest of the markets. The italian market's income elasticity is also shown to be higher compared to the UAE and US market with a value of about 6.5, 2.2, 0.66 respectively. The methods of estimating the individual demand for Egyptian frozen vegetables using import statistics and using export statistics indicate different types of elastisates for the demand for Egyptian frozen vegetables for the Italian market and the Saudi and Emirati market from elastic demand to inelastic demand, which indicates the existence of Tri-Market Operation of Egyptian frozen vegetables are in these markets. The need to increase Egyptian efforts to revive the Egyptian frozen vegetable market in the UAE market as one of the most important export markets for these goods. Try to export directly to the countries which it is already exported by identifying the countries importing from Egypt to be an effective and real demand and not an indirect demand.
اظهر المزيد [+] اقل [-]USING THE POLICY ANALYSIS MATRIX TO EVALUATE THE ECONOMIC POLICY OF TOMATO AND POTATO CROPS IN EGYPT
2020
Mohammed* O.A
Agricultural policy in Egypt has tended in recentyears to make some structural changes in order tomaximize the economic return in light of the technical possibilities and local and international economics of agricultural production determinants.some Food crops, industrial and export important inEgypt, and is a source of agricultural income, In order to determine the features of agricultural pricepolicy for most important vegetable crops in Egypt,it was possible to calculate the matrix of agriculturalpolicy analysis, to clarify the extent of deviationof lacal market prices for tomato and potato cropsand world prices to identify the levels of distortionsin the commodity markets and the degree of nonemployment of resources, as well as the calculationof the nominal and effective protection factors. Toidentify the price policies adopted by the state,whether the policy of subsidies or taxation ofproducers of agricultural crops, as well as thecalculation of the cost factor of the local resource todetermine the comparative advantage. We conclude from the above and based on the results ofthe Matrix of Agricultural Policy Analysis for Tomatoand Potato Crops in Egypt during the averageperiod (2011-2017) that the country’s productivepolicy during the study period had any affection cropproducers represented in tax rate 14.742, 12.489pounds. Which do not compare with the supportprovided to them, which averaged about 93,189pounds per acre, respectively. Tomato and potatocrops have an advantage that can be used to increase their exports in the global markets, which require integration between the state and the privatesector to activate the ability of crop producers to export. And Egyptian potatoes, and on this the studyrecommends the necessity of improving the pricesof production requirements for the crops understudy in a manner commensurate with the continuous increase in production costs in order to work onincreasing farm income and addressing negativesarising from C Tax of SAT in high production costsand made available at affordable prices.
اظهر المزيد [+] اقل [-]Taxonomic Revision and Numerical Analysis of Hibiscus L. in Egypt
2020
Amany Mostafa
The development of agriculture over the last decades has resulted in a continuous change of the natural vegetation of Egypt. Several species widely cultivated as economic crops or ornamentals. Numbers of species which escaped from cultivation and naturalized in naturals habitats are increasing. It is necessary to study the changes in the natural vegetation and traces the new species. The present study undertakes a survey, taxonomical revision and numerical analysis of the genus Hibiscus L. in Egypt including wild and cultivated species. The taxonomic treatment based on collecting of fresh materials from the studied species, in addition to the investigation of the herbarium specimens as well as information from the literatures. Eleven species of Hibiscus were reported in this study, from which there are 5 wild species (H. diversifolius Jacq., H. micranthus L. f., H. vitifolius L., H. sabdariffa L. and H. trionum L.) and there are 6 cultivated species (H. cannabinus L., H. mutabilis L., H. rosa-sinensis L., H. schizopetalus (Mast.) Hook. f. in Curtis, H. syriacus L. and H. tiliaceus L.). An identification key to the species of Hibiscus is provided. Valid names and synonyms are updated from online sources. Scientific descriptions provided the characters of leaves, flowers, fruits and seeds based on the herbarium specimens and completed from fresh materials and literatures are given. Distribution of wild species in their phytogeographical regions are provided. Type specimen, habitat, selected specimens and economic importance are provided for each species. The numerical analysis based on thirty six morphological characters including vegetative, flowers and fruits parts of the studied species. SPSS Statistics version 22 used to get morphometric analysis. The numerical analysis revealed two main clusters. The first cluster included 3 species, viz. H. micranthus L. f., H. vitifolius L. and H. trionum L. The second cluster included two groups: group (a) viz. H. diversifolius Jacq., H. syriacus L., and H. tiliaceus L., and group (b) viz. Hibiscus cannabinus L., H. mutabilis L., H. rosa-sinensis L., H. sabdariffa L. and H. schizopetalus (Mast.) Hook. f. in Curtis.
اظهر المزيد [+] اقل [-]Water Distribution Uniformity for Turf Using a Simulation System Program
2024
shahenda el basha | khaled Elbagoury | Osama Ahmed Bedir
The study examines factors affecting sprinkler irrigation system distribution uniformity, including sprinkler type, operating pressure and computer software design. The pressures used were 1.5, 2.1, and 2.5 bar for spray nozzles 4A and 17A, and 1.7, 2, 2.5, and 3 bar for rotor nozzles 1 and 3. The results showed a strong correlation, with (R2) values of 0.996 and 0.973, between SIDUL-Program (Sprinkler Irrigation Distribution Uniformity for Landscape–Program) and Excel program with respect to coefficient of uniformity (CU) and distribution uniformity (DU) respectively, suggesting a strong correlation between the two programs. The HEDIA program validated the SIDUL–Program, revealing a 0.42% difference in CU values between the two programs for rotor nozzle 3, indicating also a strong correlation (R2 = 0.953) between the two programs. The results showed that DU for spray 4A at a pressure of 2.1 bar was 7.4%, higher than DU at a pressure of 1.5 bar; the CU for spray 17A was 11.9% higher, as supported by manufacturer specifications. The study concluded that calculating CU and DU using the SIDUL–Program is critical for assessing sprinkler performance in irrigation systems since it considers factors such as soil type, irrigation 1methods and location; in addition to being easy to use and accurate com-pared to other programs.
اظهر المزيد [+] اقل [-]Effect of Calcium, Magnesium Fertigation and Molybdenum Foliar Sprays on Yield and Fruit Quality of Flame Seedless Table Grape Cultivar
2024
Mohamed El-Katawy | Nazmy A Abdel Ghany | Mohamed Ibrahim | Ghobrial Ghobrial | Mohamed Abd El-Hamed Nasser
This investigation was performed during the 2018 and 2019 seasons in a private vineyard to study the effect of calcium, magnesium fertigation and molybdenum foliar sprays on the yield and fruit quality of Flame seedless table grape cultivar. The experimental layout was arranged in a split-plot design. All treatments were applied on three dates: after the bud burst stage, at the fruit set stage and veraison stage. The results showed that the combined application of 30 Kg calcium with 20 Kg magnesium fertigation and foliar spraying of 30 ppm molybdenum was the most effective among all treatments in terms of enhancing vegetative growth characteristics, increasing leaf content of total chlorophylls and mineral elements as well as improving yield and fruit quality attributes.
اظهر المزيد [+] اقل [-]In Silico and In Vitro Assessment of Antiviral Activities of Licorice and Green Tea Extracts Against Tobacco Mosaic Virus
2024
Alshymaa Ahmed | Khalid El Dougdoug | Lina Amin | Atef Sadik
Using integrated in silico and in vitro experiments, the antiviral capabilities of green tea and licorice extracts were evaluated against the tobacco mosaic virus (TMV). It was noted that the number of induced necrotic local lesions of TMV decreased by increasing extract concentrations and thus it is considered concentration dependent on the extracts’ active compounds. Properties of eleven compounds belonging to licorice and green tea were obtained from databases to examine their activities in silico. A molecular docking simulation was performed between these agents and the protein coat of the tobacco mosaic virus (TMV). The highest effective compounds were glycyrrhetic acid, liquiritin and EGCG. ADMET studies revealed good overall properties of nine non-toxic compounds based on their predicted pharmacokinetic, physicochemical, drug-likeness and toxic properties. Based on docking energy and mode of interaction, these compounds showed strong binding with the protein coat of TMV. The antiviral effect may be due to the most effective compounds with the highest affinity namely glycyr-rhetic acid, liquiritin and isoliquiritin. As a conclusion, the promising value of our titled extracts is the anti-TMV activity and pharmacokinetic and physicochemical properties of their active constituents.
اظهر المزيد [+] اقل [-]