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MACRO ECONOMIC SIMULTANIOUS MODEL FOR EGYPTIAN NATIONAL ECONOMY
2014
Abeer Abdalla Kinawy | Rehab Said Ibrahim
Gross national product (GNP) is considered as one of the important indicators that reflect the ability of national economy to achieve the main objectives of the state including creation of employment opportunities, development of export potentials, and positive contribution in reduction of the deficits in the balance of payments and the balance of trade. Analysis of the most important components of the gross national income is of considerable importance that enables the identification of changing values of individual components of the gross national product. The study aimed at identifying causes of imbalance in the national economy through the following determination of the relative importance of Egyptian GNP and development of important economic indicators in the Egyptian national economy. Analysis and identification of the most important economic factors affecting expenditure on consumption, investment, exports and imports are mode through building single and multiple equation models aiming at identifying the most important economic factors affecting variables of the study. Moreover, forecasting the most are also mode important variables until.2020. Results obtained indicated that the household consumer expenditure in 2012 was equal to 158.5 billion Dollars representing 58% of the GNP, followed by Investment expenditure, representing 18% of GNP, followed by government expenditure, total exports and total imports representing 9%, 8% and 7%, respectively. Results obtained proved that the most important economic indicators increased annually with different rates during the study period. Studying of the mutual impact between GNP and the study variables through building an econometric model and applying two stage least square method. The model contains six equations for GNP, total investments, total imports, total exports, government expenditure, and household expenditure. In addition, an identification equation for the (GNP= household expenditure + Investment expenditure + Government expenditure + net international trade). The study proved that while the most important determinants of the Egyptian GNPare total investments, total exports and imports factors, mostly affect total investment are total GNP, total Egyptian exports and exchange rate Egyptian Pound. In addition, factors determining total Egyptian Imports are total exports and the exchange rate of the Egyptian Pound. Moreover, factors determining government expenditure are total exports and households consumption. Furthermore, the household consumption is highly affected by GNP and total indirect taxes. Forecasted values of the study variables are obtained by estimating single equation trend model and simultaneous equation model. Results obtained indicated that the forecasted value of the Egyptian GNP in 2020 will be equal to 334$ and 335 billion Dollars using single trend equation and simultaneous equation models, respectively. The forecasted total investment in 2020 is expected to be equal 64 billion dollars. The forecasted Total Egyptian imports and exports using single trend equation are 33.2, and 29.2, billion dollars, respectively. The forecasted values of total exports and imports in 2020 using simultaneous equation model are 32.8, and 830.1, respectively. Regarding Government expenditure results obtained indicated that the forecasted government expenditure is expected to take values of 31.9 and 51.4 billion dollars using single equation trend model and simultaneous equation model, respectively. Results related to the forecasted household expenditure in 2020 is expected to take values of $206.5 billion and $334 billion using single equation trend model and simultaneous equation model, respectively. Based on the research results, best forecasted values the study variables are obtained by using simultaneous equation models. This may be attributed to the fact that simultaneous equation mod- els takes into account all variables as well as the interactions between variables. Based on results the study recommend that the state would give the highest priority to economic policy that would lead to rationalization of household expenditure. In addition, aiming at reducing the Egyptian trade balance, policies that would lead to reduction of the gap between imports and exports by limiting imports and encouraging exports are highly recommended. Moreover, policies that increase and encourage investment, limit inflation, and control of prices of goods and services are expected to have positive impact on the Egyptian economy.
اظهر المزيد [+] اقل [-]SEASONALITY OF DEMAND FOR SOME EGYPTIAN VEGETABLES IN Cairo El- Abour MARKET
2014
Alaa M.R. Elsabea | Mohamed O. Abd El-fatah
The study showed the the importance of the effect of seasonality in determining the amounts received for the transit market of vegetable crops in Egypt. As it turned out great linkage between the quantities and prices of vegetables in the transit market, which reflects the importance of reconsidering the random cropping and where there is no minimum or organizing thread. Where it should be to regulate the use of agricultural resources limited to Egypt and so achieve the maximum return for producers and consumers and the marketer and reduces wastage of resources in making a glitch between supply and demand, resulting in higher prices hurt consumer Login or drop in prices hurt farmers' incomes. It is worth noting that the changes in the agricultural sector, which is the main activity in the Egyptian countryside, especially in the light of economic liberalization policies such as the abolition of support for agricultural inputs, and the liberalization of prices of agricultural and left are determined by market forces, with the demolition of Tzawar marketing system for Khaddrady to irregular or balance of supply with the demand after the policy of economic liberalization in the agriculture sector, which increased from large fluctuations in prices as a result of increasing the gap between supply and demand for agricultural commodities, and all of these reasons have led to an increase in poverty in the countryside and in Egypt in particular. This reflects the importance of Tzawar marketing system and return to the installation Almsola Central, which balances the needs of the consumer growing and limited agricultural resources by reducing the size of the gap between supply and demand, which reduces the price differences during the months of the year and which is reflected in the increase in income and welfare of the consumer and the producer together. The return of the agricultural cycle of the most important requirements for achieving balance in the prices of vegetables in Egypt and reduces loss in the limited agricultural resources and achieve the protection of soil fertility and reduces the need for fertilizers and pesticides. This regulation of the market productive agricultural reduce the imbalance between supply and demand, which increases the efficiency of the distribution of the use of agricultural resources among the wider use of alternative optimal resource allocation and reduce the waste of limited agricultural resources. Decreases as well as huge losses for producers and consumers at the micro level as well to reduce the negative effects on the macro level by reducing imports and increasing exports, where there is improved efficiency performance in the Egyptian agricultural sector at the micro level and kidneys.
اظهر المزيد [+] اقل [-]INFLUENCE OF USING SOME SAFETY MATERIALS ON WATER REQUIREMENT AND WATER USE EFFICIENCY OF SNAP BEAN PLANT
2014
Usrya A.I. Byan
Two field experiments were conducted during the two successive seasons of 2011/2012 at the Experimental Farm, Kaha station, Qulubia Governorate to study the effect of using four levels of water regime ,i.e. 60%, 80%, 100 and 120% from class A pan evaporation and five safety materials, i.e. water (as control),amino-z, lithovit (a natural intensified CO2 foliar fertilizer ) as foliar spray on snap bean plants as well as the biofertilize mycorrhizal as a seed treatment before sowing and sap material as a absorbent polymer to increase with holding water capacity before sowing and the effect of that on growth, green snap bean yield Poulista cv ., physical and chemical characters as well as water use efficiency. The results indicated that, mycorrhizal seed treatment, lithovit foliar spray and soil treatment with sap material gave the highest values of green pod characters as well as the vegetative growth, in addition all the safety material used led to significant increment on pod yield and the favorable treatments were obtained by using sap material and foliar spray with amino -z. Concerning to using safety materials with water regime levels, it was found that, spraying snap bean plants with amino- z and irrigation with 120% levels from class A pan evaporation was the superior treatment on green pod yield followed by soil treatment with sap material with 60% of water level. Regarding to the mean of green pod weight, the results showed that treating seed with mycorrhizal and 120% level of water regime gave the highest values during the two seasons, then the treatment of foliar spray with lithovite with 80% level of water regime and the treatment by sap soil treatments with supplied by 60% of water irrigation. Concerning to water use efficiency, the data showed that supplied the plants with the highest amount of water 120% and 100% from water irrigation decreased the values of water use efficiency, on the contrary , it can obtained the highest values of water use efficiency from water supplied with 60% then 80% calculated by class A pan evaporation method. Regarding to the effect of safety material on water use efficiency, it was found that, sap treatment or foliar spray with amino-z then, mycorrhizal treatments gave the highest value of water use efficiency. Generally, it can recommend by using sap material of soil addition before sowing and foliar spray by amino- z followed by treating the seeds with mycorrhizal with irrigation level 60% or 80%to obtained the favorable green pod yield and the favorable water use efficiency.
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