H7N9 avian influenza has broken out in Chinese poultry 10 times since 2013 and impacted the industry severely. Although the epidemic is currently under control, there is still a latent threat. Epidemiological surveillance data for non-human H7N9 avian influenza from April 2013 to April 2020 were used to analyse the regional distribution and spatial correlations of positivity rates in different months and years and before and after comprehensive immunisation. In addition, positivity rate monitoring data were disaggregated into a low-frequency and a high-frequency trend sequence by wavelet packet decomposition (WPD). The particle swarm optimisation algorithm was adopted to optimise the least squares support-vector machine (LS-SVM) model parameters to predict the low-frequency trend sequence, and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to predict the high-frequency one. Ultimately, an LS-SVM-ARIMA combined model based on WPD was constructed. The virus positivity rate was the highest in late spring and early summer, and overall it fell significantly after comprehensive immunisation. Except for the year 2015 and the single month of December from 2013 to 2020, there was no significant spatiotemporal clustering in cumulative non-human H7N9 avian influenza virus detections. Compared with the ARIMA and LS-SVM models, the LS-SVM-ARIMA combined model based on WPD had the highest prediction accuracy. The mean absolute and root mean square errors were 2.4% and 2.0%, respectively. Low error measures prove the validity of this new prediction method and the combined model could be used for inference of future H7N9 avian influenza virus cases. Live poultry markets should be closed in late spring and early summer, and comprehensive H7N9 immunisation continued.

Introduction of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) into a country and its further spread may have a devastating impact on the poultry industry and lead to serious economic consequences. Various risk factors may increase the probability of HPAI outbreak occurrence but their relative influence is often difficult to determine. The study evaluates how the densities of selected poultry species and proximity to the areas inhabited by wild birds impacted HPAI outbreak occurrence during the recently reported epidemics in Poland. The analysis was developed using these risk factors in the locations of affected and randomly chosen unaffected commercial farms. Generalised linear and non-linear models, specifically logistic regression, classification tree and random forest, were used to indicate the most relevant risk factors, to quantify their association with HPAI outbreak occurrence, and to develop a map depicting spatial risk distribution. The most important risk factors comprised the densities of turkeys, geese and ducks. The abundance of these species of poultry in an area increased the probability of HPAI occurrence, and their farming intensity in several areas of central, western, eastern and northern Poland put these areas at the highest risk. The results may improve the targeting of active surveillance, strengthen biosecurity in the areas at risk and contribute to early detection of HPAI in outbreak reoccurrences.

Novel clade 2.3.4.4 H5 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) outbreaks have occurred since early 2015 in Taiwan and impacted the island economically, like they have many countries. This research investigates the immunogenicity of two HPAIV-like particles to assess their promise as vaccine candidates. The haemagglutinin (HA) gene derived from clade 2.3.4.4 H5 HPAIV and matrix protein 1 (M1) gene were cloned into the pFastBac Dual baculovirus vector. The resulting recombinant viruses were expressed in Spodoptera frugiperda moth (Sf)21 cells and silkworm pupae to generate Sf21 virus-like particles (VLP) and silkworm pupa VLP. Two-week-old specific pathogen–free chickens were immunised and their humoral and cellular immune responses were analysed. The silkworm pupa VLP had higher haemagglutination competence. Both VLP types elicited haemagglutination inhibition antibodies, anti-HA antibodies, splenic interferon gamma (IFN-γ) and interleukin 4 (IL-4) mRNA expression, and CD4⁺/CD8⁺ ratio elevation. However, chickens receiving silkworm pupa VLP exhibited a significantly higher anti-HA antibody titre in ELISA after vaccination. Although Sf21 VLP recipients expressed more IFN-γ and IL-4, the increase in IFN-γ did not significantly raise the CD4⁺/CD8⁺ ratio and the increase in IL-4 did not promote anti-HA antibodies. Both VLP systems possess desirable immunogenicity in vivo. However, in respect of immunogenic efficacy and the production cost, pupa VLP may be the superior vaccine candidate against clade 2.3.4.4 H5 HPAIV infection.