Objective-To evaluate various sampling strategies for potential use in measuring prevalence of antimicrobial susceptibility in cattle. Sample Population-500 isolates of non-type-specific Escherichia coli (NTSEC) isolated from the feces of 50 cows from 2 dairy farms (25 cows/farm and 10 isolates/cow). Procedures-Diameters of inhibition zones for 12 antimicrobials were analyzed to estimate variation among isolates, cows, and farms and then used to determine sampling distributions for a stochastic simulation model to evaluate 4 sampling strategies. These theoretic sampling strategies used a total of 100 isolates in 4 allocations (1 isolate from 100 cows, 2 isolates from 50 cows, 3 isolates from 33 cows, or 4 isolates from 25 cows). Results-Analysis of variance composition revealed that 74.2% of variation was attributable to isolates, 18.5% to cows, and 7.3% to farms. Analysis of results of simulations suggested that when most of the variance was attributable to differences among isolates within a cow, culturing 1 isolate from each of 100 cows underestimated overall prevalence, compared with results for culturing more isolates per cow from fewer cows. When variance was not primarily attributable to differences among isolates, all 4 sampling strategies yielded similar results. Conclusions and Clinical Relevance-It is not always possible to predict the hierarchical level at which clustering will have its greatest impact on observed susceptibility distributions. Results suggested that sampling strategies that use testing of 3 or 4 isolates/cow from a representative sample of all animals better characterize herd prevalence of antimicrobial resistance when impacted by clustering.

Objective-To develop a spatial epidemic model to simulate intraherd and interherd transmission of footand- mouth disease (FMD) virus. Sample Population-2,238 herds, representing beef, dairy, swine, goats, and sheep, and 5 sale yards located in Fresno, Kings, and Tulare counties of California. Procedure-Using Monte-Carlo simulations, a spatial stochastic epidemic simulation model was developed to identify new herds that would acquire FMD following random selection of an index herd and to assess progression of an epidemic after implementation of mandatory control strategies. Results-The model included species-specific transition periods for FMD infection, locations of herds, rates of direct and indirect contacts among herds, and probability distributions derived from expert opinions on probabilities of transmission by direct and indirect contact, as well as reduction in contact following implementation of restrictions on movements in designated infected areas and surveillance zones. Models of supplemental control programs included slaughter of all animals within a specified distance of infected herds, slaughter of only high-risk animals identified by use of a model simulation, and vaccination of all animals within a 5- to 50-km radius of infected herds.

On-farm biosecurity measures are an important part of a control plan to minimize the introduction and spread of infectious diseases, such as equine influenza, in an equine facility. It can be challenging, however, to evaluate the efficacy of biosecurity measures under field conditions. We used an agent-based computer simulation model to describe the impact of: i) preventive vaccination; ii) reduced horse-to-horse contact; and iii) a combination of vaccination and reduced contact during an outbreak of equine influenza in a simulated horse facility. The model demonstrated that the most effective intervention was a combination of a high proportion of recently vaccinated horses and a substantial reduction in horse-to-horse contact once equine influenza had been identified in the facility. This study highlights the importance of compliance when implementing biosecurity measures, such as facility-level infection control practices, on horse farms.

Objective-To estimate receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves for a competitive ELISA (c-ELISA) that is used in serodiagnosis of brucellosis in water buffalo and cattle, to determine the most appropriate positive cutoff value for the c-ELISA in confirmation of infection, and to evaluate species differences in c-ELISA function. Sample population-Sera from 4 herds of cattle (n = 391) and 4 herds of water buffalo (381). Procedure-Serum samples were evaluated for Brucella-specific antibodies by use of a c-ELISA. On the basis of previous serologic test results, iterative simulation modeling was used to classify animals as positive or negative for Brucella infection without the use of a gold standard. Accuracy of c-ELISA for diagnosis of infection was compared between cattle and water buffalo by comparison of areas under ROC curves. Results-A positive cutoff value of 30% inhibition for c-ELISA yielded sensitivity and specificity estimates, respectively, of 83.9 and 92.6% for cattle and 91.4 and 95.4% for water buffalo. A positive cutoff value of 35% inhibition yielded sensitivity and specificity estimates, respectively, of 83.9 and 96.2% for cattle and 88.0 and 97.4% for water buffalo. Areas under ROC curves were 0.94 and 0.98 for cattle and water buffalo, respectively. Conclusion and Clinical Relevance-ROC curves can be estimated by use of iterative simulation methods to determine optimal cutoff values for diagnostic tests with quantitative outcomes. A cutoff value of 35% inhibition for the c-ELISA was found to be most appropriate for confirmation of Brucella infection in cattle and water buffalo.

Epidemiologic modeling of the likely herd-to-herd transmission of pseudorabies virus (PRV) was developed to assess the progress and potential for the PRV-eradication program in the United States. The herd-to-herd transmission of PRV over a 20-year period (1993 to 2012) in the United States was simulated under various scenarios, which included variable program-funding levels and variable prevalences. A transition model (Markov process model) was used to predict yearly changes in herd prevalence of PRV infection. Five mutually exclusive states of nature for herds were assumed: uninfected and not vaccinated; uninfected and vaccinated; known to be infected and not vaccinated; known to be infected and vaccinated; and infected, but not known to be infected. Three prevalences for states in the United States were assumed: higher prevalence, moderate prevalence, and lower prevalence. Three funding levels were assumed: no eradication program, continued funding at the current level, and increased funding of 25%. Estimates made by an expert panel for determining probabilities in the state-transition matrices were used. A model also was developed, and was considered to be the most optimistic scenario likely under increased funding of 25%. The most optimistic estimates of the probabilities that still lay within the range of estimates made by the expert panel were used for this model. Only the optimistic transmission matrices allowed for total eradication of PRV. Using the optimistic matrices, all states in the United States of America had moved into the moderate- or low-level risk status by the year 2000. The longest time taken to achieve eradication was for the state of Iowa, where eradication was not achieved until 2012.

OBJECTIVE To evaluate effects of an orthosis on biomechanics of a cranial cruciate ligament (CrCL)-deficient canine stifle joint by use of a 3-D quasistatic rigid-body pelvic limb computer model simulating the stance phase of gait and to investigate influences of orthosis hinge stiffness (durometer). SAMPLE A previously developed computer simulation model for a healthy 33-kg 5-year-old neutered Golden Retriever. PROCEDURES A custom stifle joint orthosis was implemented in the CrCL-deficient pelvic limb computer simulation model. Ligament loads, relative tibial translation, and relative tibial rotation in the orthosis-stabilized stifle joint (baseline scenario; high-durometer hinge]) were determined and compared with values for CrCL-intact and CrCL-deficient stifle joints. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to evaluate the influence of orthosis hinge stiffness on model outcome measures. RESULTS The orthosis decreased loads placed on the caudal cruciate and lateral collateral ligaments and increased load placed on the medial collateral ligament, compared with loads for the CrCL-intact stifle joint. Ligament loads were decreased in the orthosis-managed CrCL-deficient stifle joint, compared with loads for the CrCL-deficient stifle joint. Relative tibial translation and rotation decreased but were not eliminated after orthosis management. Increased orthosis hinge stiffness reduced tibial translation and rotation, whereas decreased hinge stiffness increased internal tibial rotation, compared with values for the baseline scenario. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE Stifle joint biomechanics were improved following orthosis implementation, compared with biomechanics of the CrCL-deficient stifle joint. Orthosis hinge stiffness influenced stifle joint biomechanics. An orthosis may be a viable option to stabilize a CrCL-deficient canine stifle joint.

Objective-To investigate the influence of varying morphological parameters on canine stifle joint biomechanics by use of a 3-D rigid-body canine pelvic limb computer model that simulated an intact and cranial cruciate ligament (CrCL)–deficient stifle joint across the stance phase of gait at a walk. Sample-Data from computer simulations. Procedures-Computer model morphological parameters, including patellar ligament insertion location, tibial plateau angle (TPA), and femoral condyle diameter (FCD), were incrementally altered to determine their influence on outcome measures (ligament loads, relative tibial translation, and relative tibial rotation) during simulation of the stance phase of gait at a walk. Outcome measures were assessed for each scenario and compared between an intact and CrCL-deficient stifle joint with the sensitivity index (the percentage change in outcome measure divided by the percentage change in input parameter). Results-In a CrCL-intact stifle joint, ligament loads were most sensitive to TPA. In a CrCL-deficient stifle joint, outcome measures were most sensitive to TPA with the exception of caudal cruciate ligament and lateral collateral ligament loads, which were sensitive to FCD and TPA. Relative tibial translation was sensitive to TPA and patellar ligament insertion location, whereas relative tibial rotation was most sensitive to TPA. Conclusions and Clinical Relevance-The computer model sensitivity analyses predicted that individual parameters, particularly TPA and FCD, influence stifle joint biomechanics. Therefore, tibial and femoral morphological parameters may affect the likelihood, prevention, and management of CrCL deficiency.

Objective-To assess estimated effectiveness of control and eradication procedures for foot-andmouth disease (FMD) in a region of California. Sample Population-2,238 herds and 5 sale yards in Fresno, Kings, and Tulare counties of California. Procedure-A spatial stochastic model was used to simulate hypothetical epidemics of FMD for specified control scenarios that included a baseline eradication strategy mandated by USDA and supplemental control strategies of slaughter or vaccination of all animals within a specified distance of infected herds, slaughter of only high-risk animals identified by use of a model simulation, and expansion of infected and surveillance zones. Results-Median number of herds affected varied from 1 to 385 (17% of all herds), depending on type of index herd and delay in diagnosis of FMD. Percentage of herds infected decreased from that of the baseline eradication strategy by expanding the designated infected area from 10 to 20 km (48%), vaccinating within a 50-km radius of an infected herd (41%), slaughtering the 10 highest-risk herds for each infected herd (39%), and slaughtering all animals within 5 km of an infected herd (24%). Conclusions and Clinical Relevance-Results for the model provided a means of assessing the relative merits of potential strategies for control and eradication of FMD should it enter the US livestock population. For the study region, preemptive slaughter of highest-risk herds and vaccination of all animals within a specified distance of an infected herd consistently decreased size and duration of an epidemic, compared with the baseline eradication strategy.