The unsustainable agricultural production mode of “high input and high output” has imposed a heavy burden on China’s ecosystems, and severely restricted the sustainable development of the country’s agrifood systems. Taking long-term prevention and control of agricultural nonpoint-source pollution as the key approach can play an important role in upgrading country’s agriculture to circular and renewable agriculture-food-ecological system circulation. Currently, the five major sources of agricultural nonpoint-source pollution in China are livestock, poultry and aquaculture; chemical fertilizers; pesticides; crop residues; and waste plastic films. The Chinese government has issued corresponding policies and measures to carry out prevention and control at the source and end, which have achieved initial results. Its accurate grasp of policy direction and policy implementation provide lessons for other developing countries. Several years of treatments have resulted in remarkable reduction of nitrogen and phosphorus emissions from the livestock and poultry farming, but the pollutant emissions of the aquaculture are increasing, and the utilization rate of chemical fertilizers and pesticides is still relatively low compared with that of developed countries. China mainly relies on policies and legal means, and government subsidies to control agricultural nonpointsource pollution in the short term. However, more emerging options should be explored to establish a long-term mechanism to prevent and control agricultural nonpoint-source pollution and to transform the agrifood systems to become even greener, including property rights arrangements, interprovincial ecological compensation, green finance, and brand building for ecological agricultural products. | Non-PR | IFPRI4; 3 Building Inclusive and Efficient Markets, Trade Systems, and Food Industry; DCA | DSGD

Our understanding of decision-making within rural households has changed substantially since interest in intrahousehold decision-making emerged in the 1980s. Conventional wisdom, rooted in the unitary theory of the household, held that households are groups of individuals who have the same preferences and fully pool their resources (Becker 1981). Accumulating empirical evidence has shifted this concept of the household in which households decide “as one” to a “collective” model in which individual household members may have different preferences, may not completely pool resources, and may bargain over outcomes in both production and consumption (Haddad, Hoddinott, and Alderman 1997).

During the past several decades, significant progress has been made in reducing global hunger and malnutrition. The number of people suffering malnutrition, however, is rising again. The hidden costs and externalities in the agrifood systems are among the major contributors to various economic, social, and public health crises including food insecurity, zoonotic diseases, climate change, and malnutrition. Compounding the ongoing challenges facing the global agrifood systems, the COVID-19 pandemic, beginning in 2020, has intensified food insecurity and malnutrition in many parts of the world. Global food price indexes increased by more than 27.3 percent from the second half of 2020 to March 2021. Moreover, with many people losing their jobs during the COVID-19 outbreak and therefore facing a dramatic income decrease, the number of people confronted with food crises and extreme poverty increased significantly. Furthermore, the outbreak and prevalence of COVID-19 also increased regional inequalities in global food security, especially in Africa and the Middle East.

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020 has caused a global public health crisis. It has also severely damaged the world’s agrifood systems. Before the pandemic, agrifood systems were already vulnerable to many threats, including climate change, frequent extreme weather events, degradation of natural resources, economic slowdown, and regional conflicts (Fan, Wei, and Zhang 2020; Chen et al. 2020). The number of undernourished people worldwide had been increasing for five consecutive years to 690 million in 2019. More than 135 million people in 55 countries and territories were facing acute hunger, 144 million children younger than five were stunted, and 47 million children were wasted (FSIN 2020; FAO et al. 2020). The pandemic has increased poverty for the first time in 22 years—about 100 million more people have fallen into extreme poverty (FAO 2021b). Moreover, an additional 130 million people are threatened by acute severe food insecurity during the pandemic (WFP 2020a). A recent study has shown that the total number of children affected by stunting could increase by 2.8 million because of the pandemic (World Bank 2021). At the same time, the number of children experiencing wasting could increase by 6.7 million (UNICEF 2020; WFP 2020b). The livelihoods of vulnerable groups such as smallholder farmers, women, and migrant workers are threatened as they face losing jobs and incomes (FAO 2021b). Without effective measures, 840 million people in the world could face undernourishment and suffer from hunger by 2030, far from the “zero hunger” of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (IFPRI 2021b). As vaccines are gradually deployed globally, the pandemic is expected to be under control to some extent by the end of 2021. But we should not simply recover from the crisis; it is time to rethink how to build back better to achieve green, low-carbon, healthier, inclusive, and more resilient food systems.

With rapid improvements in agricultural productivity and residents’ income, China has made remarkable advances in reducing hunger and malnutrition, as well as quality improvements in residents’ diets, witnessed by the progressively increasing consumption of fruits, eggs, aquatic products, and milk. However, new health and environmental challenges also arise alongside China’s dietary transition. Specifically, overweight and obesity have become increasingly prominent, and the incidence of diet-related chronic diseases has been on the rise. Among all these trends, the significant increase in meat consumption not only led to nutrition and health challenges, but also imposed intense pressure on resources and the environment. There are significant gaps between the current diet of Chinese residents and the recommended diets of the Chinese Dietary Guidelines and the EATLancet Commission. The current Chinese diet is mainly composed of grains, dominated by refined rice and noodles, insufficient coarse food grains, excessive meat, and insufficient consumption of whole grains, fruits, legumes, and milk. Incidence and mortality from diet-related chronic diseases in China would be significantly reduced if the “healthy diet” recommendations of the Chinese Dietary Guidelines, EAT-Lancet, Mediterranean and flexitarian (or low meat) diets were adopted. Deaths in China would be reduced by 1.15 million by 2030 if the population were following the Chinese Dietary Guidelines, or 1.8 million by shifting to the EAT-Lancet diet. At the same time, such a shift would significantly lower greenhouse gas emissions. Simulation results show that greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural activities would be reduced by 146-202 million metric tons if residents adopted one of the healthy diets, and by 60-116 million metric tons compared with food consumption at the 2020 level. The flexitarian diet would reduce greenhouse gas emissions the most.

During recent decades, agriculture has developed rapidly in China, ensuring food security and enriching residents’ diets. At the same time, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the country’s agrifood systems have increased by only 16 percent in the past two decades and fell for two consecutive years in 2017 and 2018. The proportion of GHG emissions in the country’s food systems to the total GHG emissions dropped from 18.7 percent in 1997 to 8.2 percent in 2018. GHG emissions from the Chinese agrifood systems should not be ignored, neverthless. In 2018, GHG emissions from agrifood systems was still as high as 1.09 billion tons CO2eq1. While ensuring food security as the national top priority, measures such as improving agricultural technologies, reducing food loss and waste, and shifting dietary patterns must be adopted to reduce GHG emissions from agrifood systems. Improvements in agricultural technologies are the most effective standalone measures, but the combined three measures above have the most significant effect on GHG emission reduction. Projections show that the combined three measures can redcue GHG emissions by 47 percent in 2060 from the 2020 level. Land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) play a key role as a carbon sink. The carbon sequestration from LULUCF was around 1.1 billion tons CO2eq in 2014. It can increase to 1.6 billion tons of CO2eq per year in 2060, thus LULUCF could completely offset GHG emissions from agrifood systems and still have a surplus capacity to sequester nearly 1 billion additional tons of CO2eq per year, well above the current level of net sequestration,contributing to overall carbon neutrality of China.

The unsustainable agricultural production mode of “high input and high output” has imposed a heavy burden on China’s ecosystems, and severely restricted the sustainable development of the country’s agrifood systems. Taking long-term prevention and control of agricultural nonpoint-source pollution as the key approach can play an important role in upgrading country’s agriculture to circular and renewable agriculture-food-ecological system circulation. Currently, the five major sources of agricultural nonpoint-source pollution in China are livestock, poultry and aquaculture; chemical fertilizers; pesticides; crop residues; and waste plastic films. The Chinese government has issued corresponding policies and measures to carry out prevention and control at the source and end, which have achieved initial results. Its accurate grasp of direction and implementation provide lessons for other developing countries. Several years of treatments have resulted in remarkable reduction of nitrogen and phosphorus emissions from the livestock and poultry farming, but the pollutant emissions of the aquaculture are increasing, and the utilization rate of chemical fertilizers and pesticides is still relatively low compared with that of developed countries. China mainly relies on policies and legal means, and government subsidies to control agricultural nonpointsource pollution in the short term. However, more emerging options should be explored to establish a long-term mechanism to prevent and control agricultural nonpoint-source pollution and to transform the agrifood systems to become even greener, including property rights arrangements, interprovincial ecological compensation, green finance, and brand building for ecological agricultural products.

This case study was conducted to generate insights on the financial sustainability of selected VDFSGs and to gather information on members’ perceptions of the usefulness of these institutions in coping with household and climate change-related shocks or stresses. Financial sustainability was analyzed by conducting a detailed financial analysis of six selected VDFSGs to determine the sufficiency of interest payments as revenue to cover total costs as well as to evaluate loan recovery and equity build- up. Members’ perception of the usefulness of VDFSGs in helping them to cope with and adjust to family and climate change-related shocks/stresses was determined by conducting Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) and Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) among selected representatives of VDFSG members. Useful feedback of the financial performance and areas for improvement were generated. The Pu Hong, Pu Chhob, and Prek Svay VDFSGs were considered financially sustainable based on the results of the study. The study also revealed that the VDFSGs are considered most useful when there are crop failures due to extreme weather events and when there are medical emergencies in the household. The FGD participants and key informants expressed confidence that they are in a better position to cope with their vulnerabilities due to the presence of a VDFSG in their village.