The national animal protein sector in the last decades comes presented constants growth taxes, in production terms, export and consumption. Brazil has a potential domestic market for food consumption, mainly for meat, eggs, milk and fish. Its demand is connected to several factors, as prices, quality, nutritional aspects, preferences, taste and, mainly, the budget restriction, that is, the income. On the side of the external market, the country possesses release market buyer, but in some markets it ends face problems of commercial restrictions, added to the problems as the exchange rate, which impact in some cases in problems as supply excess. Observing the taxes of growth of the animal protein production in Brazil, it is noticed that the production grows to a larger tax than the domestic consumption. Therefore, this work analyzes a serious problem that it will be able to in the future to reach the Brazilian sector, that it is the excess of the product in the domestic market in the next years. In this context, scenarios were created with different taxes of growth of the income per head and of the production, with the objective of esteeming the production, consumption and possible surplus that it can happen at the domestic market in agreement with each presented scenario. This analysis can contribute to a series of impacts in the productive chain, including for public policy for the sector of meat , eggs, milk and fish .

International audience | The farm is each time more recognized as an object of complex study. This if becomes important when the farm is the object to supply an advice of orientation or an aid to the management, or the scope of a plan of agricultural development. For the dairy farms in agricultural borders of the Amazon, characterized by an important diversity of operation mode, the modeling of the diversity with the elaboration of typologies is an important stage for the organization of the agricultural development. From the case of dairy farms in Uruará municipio, situated on the Transamazonian frontier region, five main types of systems of milk production and theirs trajectories had been identified. Associating these two typologies, it was possible to identify the main dynamics within the diversity of the dairy systems, which represent principal evolutions between groups of farms. The results emphasize the importance of socioeconomics factors for the installation and the development of the dairy production. Inside this context, proposals can be formulated to promote the beginning of the dairy production, its stability and the improvement of the conditions of production. | A propriedade agrícola é cada vez mais reconhecida como um objeto de estudo complexo. Isso se torna importante quando nela se intervém para fornecer um conselho de orientação ou uma ajuda à gestão, ou, num quadro mais amplo, no âmbito de um plano de desenvolvimento rural. Nos estabelecimentos leiteiros das frentes pioneiras da Amazônia, cuja diversidade de funcionamento é particularmente marcante, a modelagem da diversidade, graças à construção de tipologias, representa uma etapa importante para a organização do desenvolvimento agrícola. A partir do caso das explorações leiteiras no município de Uruará, na frente pioneira da Transamazônica, foram identificados cincos principais tipos de sistemas de produção de leite e trajetórias desses. A combinação dessas duas tipologias levou a caracterizar as principais dinâmicas possíveis dentro da diversidade dos sistemas leiteiros, representando as principais evoluções entre os tipos de propriedades. Os resultados salientam a importância de fatores socioeconômicos na implementação e desenvolvimento da atividade leiteira. Nesse contexto, as propostas formuladas devem favorecer a integração da produção leiteira, a sua permanência e a melhoria das condições de produção.

International audience