This paper considers whether there will be sufficient water available to grow enough food for a predicted global population of 9 billion in 2050, based on three population and GDP growth modelling scenarios. Under the a low population growth with high GDP growth scenario, global consumptive water demand is forecast to increase significantly to over 6,000 km3, which is approximately 3,000 km3 greater that consumptive use in the year 2000. Also of concern is that rising global temperatures are going to increase potential evaporation, and t us irrigation water demand, by up to 17%. Sustainable intensification of agriculture can provide solutions to this predicament. However, productivity growth i not fast enough and we face considerable risks in the next 20 to 30 years. Concerted action to combat food insecurity and water scarcity is required based on agricultural research and development, policy reform and greater water productivity, if the world is to feed its growing population.

Water, energy and food nexus of Indus Water Treaty (IWT) is presented in the light of water governance. The water governance doctrine refers to social, economic, administrative and political systems influencing the transboundary water use and management. Water governance means who gets what water, when and how much, and who has the right to water related benefits. Indus Water Treaty is cited to be one of the few successful settlements of boundary water basin conflicts that has stood the test of times since last six decades. Riparian states have opportunities of harvesting water, power and agriculture by compliance to accords in letter and spirit. IWT restrains both (India) and lower (Pakistan) riparian from pulling out of accord from fear of deadly consequences. IWT is founded on World Bank’s professionally prepared comprehensive terms and conditions keeping in mind future regional developments. This treaty has given control of three eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas and Sutlej) to India and three western rivers (Indus, Jhelum and Chenab) to Pakistan. IWT gives both countries genuine share of eastern/western waters for domestic use, agriculture and electricity generation using Run-of-River Plants, subject to observing minimum level of water flow into lower riparian at Head Marala Barrage. Water, energy and food nexus of this treaty bonds upper and lower riparian to comply with water governance principles. Upper riparian diverted 34 million acre feet (MAF) water out of eastern rivers before entering into Pakistan and launched run-of-river power plants spree on western rivers in last two decades. Restricting water flow to lower riparian in the name of pond filling needs attention. Unrestricted use of water in run-of-river power plants is pointed out to be a limiting factor in Indus Water Treaty. Continuum of cooperation has room for collaboration under Indus Water Treaty. India and Pakistan can sort out disputes by dialogue, in light of rights and needs, rather Harmon Doctrine.

Access to sufficient and clean freshwater is essential for all life. Water is also essential for the functioning of food systems: as a key input into food production, but also in processing and preparation, and as a food itself. Water scarcity and pollution are growing, affecting poorer populations most, and particularly food producers. Malnutrition levels are also on the rise, and this is closely linked to water scarcity. The achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) 2 and 6 are co-dependent. Solutions for jointly improving food systems and water security outcomes include: (1) strengthening efforts to retain water-based ecosystems and their functions; (2) improving agricultural water management for better diets for all; (3) reducing water and food losses beyond the farmgate; (4) coordinating water with nutrition and health interventions; (5) increasing the environmental sustainability of food systems; (6) explicitly addressing social inequities in water-nutrition linkages; and (7) improving data quality and monitoring for water-food system linkages, drawing on innovations in information and communications technology (ICT). Climate change and other environmental and societal changes make the implementation and scaling of solutions more urgent than ever.

Water scarcity is already a reality. More food will be required for a growing and wealthier and urbanized population that will put more pressure on water resources. With several water-related limits reached or breached - groundwater decline, shrinking rivers and threatened fisheries - we must ask, 'Will there be enough water to grow enough food? It is possible to produce the food needed, but if present practices continue it is not probable that we will solve the many poverty and environmental challenges confronting us. To share a scarce resource and to limit environmental damage in the face of climate change, it is imperative to limit future water use. Important pathways to growing enough food with limited water are to increase productivity of water in irrigated and rainfed areas, improve water management in low-yielding rainfed areas, and to consider our own food consumption patterns. In pockets of poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia, expanding access to water through a range of water management solutions holds the key to food security and poverty reduction. For sustainable water use, water managers must consider agriculture as an ecosystem and how other ecosystem services are impacted through water. These actions will require serious changes in how we think about water and food, and how we govern water and land resources.

Water scarcity is already a reality. More food will be required for a growing and wealthier and urbanized population that will put more pressure on water resources. With several water-related limits reached or breached - groundwater decline, shrinking rivers and threatened fisheries - we must ask, Will there be enough water to grow enough food? It is possible to produce the food needed, but if present practices continue it is not probable that we will solve the many poverty and environmental challenges confronting us. To share a scarce resource and to limit environmental damage in the face of climate change, it is imperative to limit future water use. Important pathways to growing enough food with limited water are to increase productivity of water in irrigated and rainfed areas, improve water management in low-yielding rainfed areas, and to consider our own food consumption patterns. In pockets of poverty in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia, expanding access to water through a range of water management solutions holds the key to food security and poverty reduction. For sustainable water use, water managers must consider agriculture as an ecosystem and how other ecosystem services are impacted through water. These actions will require serious changes in how we think about water and food, and how we govern water and land resources.

Access to sufficient and clean freshwater is essential for all life. Water is also essential for the functioning of food systems: as a key input into food production, but also in processing and preparation, and as a food itself. Water scarcity and pollution are growing, affecting poorer populations most, and particularly food producers. Malnutrition levels are also on the rise, and this is closely linked to water scarcity. The achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) 2 and 6 are co-dependent. Solutions for jointly improving food systems and water security outcomes include: (1) strengthening efforts to retain water-based ecosystems and their functions; (2) improving agricultural water management for better diets for all; (3) reducing water and food losses beyond the farmgate; (4) coordinating water with nutrition and health interventions; (5) increasing the environmental sustainability of food systems; (6) explicitly addressing social inequities in water-nutrition linkages; and (7) improving data quality and monitoring for water-food system linkages, drawing on innovations in information and communications technology (ICT). Climate change and other environmental and societal changes make the implementation and scaling of solutions more urgent than ever. | Non-PR | 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply; IFPRI4; DCA | Natural Resources and Resilience (NRR); Transformation Strategies

Water, energy, and agriculture have been conventionally dealt with separately in investment planning. For each of these sectors, regulatory frameworks, organizations, and infrastructures have been put in place to address sector-specific challenges and demands. As the Middle East and North Africa works towards building a more sustainable future, a nexus approach that considers the risks and synergies among these sectors is needed. To demonstrate the added value of a nexus approach, this report applies scenario analysis and integrated assessment modelling of the water-energy-food nexus to the Middle East and North Africa. The analysis finds that water scarcity increases in all countries in the region over the coming decades, mostly due to growing demands. More importantly, the analysis finds that many countries in the region could run out of fossil groundwater by 2050 unless measures to curb unsustainable abstraction are implemented. The impacts of growing scarcity on agriculture are significant, with production projected to drop by 60 percent by 2050 in some countries. On the upside, reducing the dependence of the agricultural and energy sectors on water and transitioning to renewable energies can reduce water scarcity, at the same time reducing greenhouse gas emissions.