Groundwater resources in semi-arid areas and especially in the Mediterranean face a growing demand for irrigated agriculture and, to a lesser extent, for domestic uses. Consequently, groundwater reserves are affected and water-table drops are widely observed. This leads to strong constraints on groundwater access for farmers, while managers worry about the future evolution of the water resources. A common problem for building proper groundwater management plans is the difficulty in assessing individual groundwater withdrawals at regional scale. Predicting future trends of these groundwater withdrawals is even more challenging. The basic question is how to assess the water budget variables and their evolution when they are deeply linked to human activities, themselves driven by countless factors (access to natural resources, public policies, market, etc.). This study provides some possible answers by focusing on the assessment of groundwater withdrawals for irrigated agriculture at three sites in North Africa (Morocco, Tunisia and Algeria). Efforts were made to understand the different features that influence irrigation practices, and an adaptive user-oriented methodology was used to monitor groundwater withdrawals. For each site, different key factors affecting the regional groundwater abstraction and its past evolution were identified by involving farmers’ knowledge. Factors such as farmer access to land and groundwater or development of public infrastructures (electrical distribution network) are crucial to decode the results of well inventories and assess the regional groundwater abstraction and its future trend. This leads one to look with caution at the number of wells cited in the literature, which could be oversimplified.

A stochastic study of long-term forecasts of seawater intrusion with an application to the Korba aquifer (Tunisia) is presented. Firstly, a geostatistical model of the exploitation rates was constructed, based on a multi-linear regression model combining incomplete direct data and exhaustive secondary information. Then, a new method was designed and used to construct a geostatistical model of the hydraulic conductivity field by combining lithological information and data from hydraulic tests. Secondly, the effects of the uncertainties associated with the pumping rates and the hydraulic conductivity field on the 3D density-dependent transient model were analysed separately and then jointly. The forecasts of the impacts of two different management scenarios on seawater intrusion in the year 2048 were performed by means of Monte Carlo simulations, accounting for uncertainties in the input parameters as well as possible changes of the boundary conditions. Combining primary and secondary data allowed maps of pumping rates and the hydraulic conductivity field to be constructed, despite a lack of direct data. The results of the stochastic long-term forecasts showed that, most probably, the Korba aquifer will be subject to important losses in terms of regional groundwater resources.

In many parts of the world, groundwater users regularly face serious resource-depletion threat. At the same time, “groundwater overexploitation” is massively cited when discussing groundwater management problems. A kind of standard definition tends to relegate groundwater overexploitation only as a matter of inputs and outputs. However, a thorough state-of-the-art analysis shows that groundwater overexploitation is not only a matter of hydrogeology but also a qualification of exploitation based on political, social, technical, economic or environmental criteria. Thus, an aquifer with no threat to groundwater storage can rightly be considered as overexploited because of many other prejudicial aspects. So, why is groundwater overexploitation so frequently only associated with resource-depletion threat and so rarely related to other prejudicial aspects? In that case, what really lies behind the use of the overexploitation concept? The case of the Kairouan plain aquifer in central Tunisia was used to analyze the way that the overexploitation message emerges in a given context, how groundwater-use stakeholders (farmers, management agencies and scientists) each qualify the problem in their own way, and how they see themselves with regard to the concept of overexploitation. The analysis shows that focusing messages on overexploitation conceals the problems encountered by the various stakeholders: difficulties accessing water, problems for the authorities in controlling the territory and individual practices, and complications for scientists when qualifying hydrological situations. The solutions put forward to manage overexploitation are at odds with the problems that arise locally, triggering tensions and leading to misunderstandings between the parties involved.

Sustainable groundwater management strategies in water-scarce countries need to guide future decision-making processes pragmatically, by simultaneously considering local needs, environmental problems and economic development. The socio-hydrogeological approach named ‘Bir Al-Nas’ has been tested in the Grombalia region (Cap Bon Peninsula, Tunisia), to evaluate the effectiveness of complementing hydrogeochemical and hydrogeological investigations with the social dimension of the issue at stake (which, in this case, is the identification of groundwater pollution sources). Within this approach, the social appraisal, performed through social network analysis and public engagement of water end-users, allowed hydrogeologists to get acquainted with the institutional dimension of local groundwater management, identifying issues, potential gaps (such as weak knowledge transfer among concerned stakeholders), and the key actors likely to support the implementation of the new science-based management practices resulting from the ongoing hydrogeological investigation. Results, hence, go beyond the specific relevance for the Grombaila basin, showing the effectiveness of the proposed approach and the importance of including social assessment in any given hydrogeological research aimed at supporting local development through groundwater protection measures.

The Kasserine Aquifer System (KAS) is a transboundary aquifer, located in an arid region in central Tunisia and extending into northeastern Algeria. The system consists of four compartments: Oum Ali-Thelepte, Feriana-Skhirat, and the Plateau and the Plaine of Kasserine. The challenge of this study was to evaluate the influence of regional faults on groundwater flow in the different compartments of the KAS and to estimate the regional impact of current and future groundwater use. A three-dimensional saturated regional groundwater flow model for the steady state and transient conditions (1980–2015) was created and calibrated. This work was achieved using numerical flow modelling, coupled with geological modelling, using FEFLOW and GeoModeller software. The significance of regional faults as potential barriers or conduits to groundwater flow in the different aquifer compartments was evaluated by considering the different recharge rates. Two connectivity hypotheses were proposed at each major fault, and the general hydraulic relationship of units that are juxtaposed by each fault were considered. This study contributes rigorous estimates for the diffuse and concentrated recharge in the arid study region, and evaluates the groundwater behavior that shows a gradual decline in the water table over time, using a regional model. Different predicted outcomes for the KAS based on variable potential groundwater extraction scenarios for the period 2015–2050 have been developed. The results of numerical simulation provide useful information regarding the behavior of the KAS aquifers, and contribute significant knowledge to guide sustainable practice for present and future groundwater management.