Nutrient limitation can explain a rapid transition to synchrony in an upwelling-driven diatom community

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English. Identifying the mechanisms controlling the temporal dynamics of ecological communities is key to understand their vulnerability to natural and anthropogenic impacts and to identify early warnings of critical transitions. At community level, inter-specific synchrony is an important indicator of ecosystem stability and variation in function. Using wavelet analysis on time-series of abundance of 12 dominant diatom species, sampled monthly (1994-2009) in a coastal upwelling embayment at the northern limit of the Canary Current Upwelling System, we find a sudden onset of synchrony between 1998 and 2002, concomitant with an increase in the amplitude of the upwelling index at different temporal scales. To better understand the underlying mechanism that could generate this sudden onset of synchrony among competitors, we analyzed a general model of competition between two species for two essential nutrients (e.g., nitrogen and silicate). We incorporate environmental variation by varying the concentration of one of the essential nutrients entering the system. Increase in the amplitude of environmental variation always leads to greater synchrony among competitors. This occurs because the system shifts from a state in which species are limited by different nutrients to one where species are often limited by the same nutrient. We show that the transition from asynchronous to synchronous dynamics can occur suddenly as the amplitude of environmental variation increases. While it is not possible to rule out alternative mechanisms, our model demonstrates that sudden changes in the extent of synchronization should be a common feature when species compete for essential nutrients in variable environments.