Daily Precipitation Changes over Large River Basins in China, 1960–2013
2016
Bo Qu | Aifeng Lv | Shaofeng Jia | Wenbin Zhu
Based on a high-quality dataset of 713 daily precipitation series, changes in daily precipitation events during 1960–2013 were observed in China’s ten largest river basins. Specifically, the amount of precipitation in four categories defined by fixed thresholds and their proportion on total precipitation were analyzed on annual and seasonal time scales. Results showed annual precipitation increased by 1.10 mm/10yr in China, but with obvious spatial differences. Regionally, annual precipitation increased significantly in northwestern rivers, upstream areas of the Yangtze River, the Yellow River, southwestern rivers (due to increase in light and moderate precipitation): and in southeastern rivers, downstream areas of the Yangtze River, and the Pearl River (due to increase in heavy and extreme precipitation). Annual precipitation decreased significantly in the mid-Yangtze River and upstream Pearl River (due to decrease in light, moderate, and heavy precipitation). Seasonally, precipitation decreased only in autumn: this was attributable to a decrease in light and moderate precipitation. Results show that the distribution of precipitation intensity over China has shifted to intense categories since the 1960s, there has been an increase in moderate precipitation in Northwestern and Northern China, and an increase in extreme precipitation in Southeastern China. This shift was detected in all seasons, especially in summer. Precipitation extremes were investigated in the categories of extreme precipitation and results show that the risk of flood has been exacerbated over the past half-century in the Huaihe River, the mid- and lower Yangtze River, the Pearl River, and southeastern rivers.
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