Examining the Effects of Land Use on Carbon Emissions: Evidence from Pearl River Delta

Land-use change accounts for a large proportion of the carbon emissions produced each year, especially in highly developed urban agglomerations. In this study, we combined remote sensing data and socioeconomic data to estimate land-use-related carbon emissions, and applied the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method to analyze its influencing factors, in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) of China in 1990–2015. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The total amount of land-use-related carbon emissions increased from 684.84 × 104 t C in 1990 to 11,444.98 × 104 t C in 2015, resulting in a net increase of 10,760.14 × 104 t (16.71 times). (2) Land-use-related carbon emissions presented a “higher in the middle and lower on both sides” spatial distribution. Guangzhou had the highest levels of carbon emissions, and Zhaoqing had the lowest: Shenzhen experienced the greatest net increase, and Jiangmen experienced the least. (3) The land-use-related carbon emissions intensity increased from 4795.76 × 104 Yuan/t C to 12,143.05 × 104 Yuan/t C in 1990–2015, with the greatest increase seen in Huizhou and the lowest in Zhongshan. Differences were also found in the spatial distribution, with higher intensities located in the south, lower intensities in the east and west, and medium intensities in the central region. (4) Land-use change, energy structure, energy efficiency, economic development, and population all contributed to increases in land-use-related carbon emissions. Land-use change, economic development and population made positive contributions, while energy efficiency and energy structure made negative contributions. At last, we put forward several suggestions for promoting low-carbon development, including development of a low-carbon and circular economy, rationally planning land-use structure, promoting reasonable population growth, improving energy efficiency and the energy consumption structure, and advocating low-carbon lifestyles. Our findings are useful in the tasks related to assessing carbon emissions from the perspective of land-use change and analyzing the associated influencing factors, as well as providing a reference for realizing low-carbon and sustainable development in the PRD.