Coupling the Calibrated GlobalLand30 Data and Modified PLUS Model for Multi-Scenario Land Use Simulation and Landscape Ecological Risk Assessment

Rapid economic growth and urbanization have significantly changed the land use distribution and landscape ecological structure, which has a profound impact on the natural environment. A scientific grasp of the characteristics of land use distribution and its impact on landscape ecological risk is a prerequisite for sustainable urban development. This study aimed to calibrate GlobalLand30 data using the normalized difference impervious surface index (NDISI) obtained from Landsat images, thereby providing a more precise foundation for land simulation. Additionally, it sought to improve the accuracy of the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) through parameter sensitivity analysis. Building upon this, the research also simulates future land use in Beijing. Lastly, this study introduced an LER index to assess ecological risk in the current and future urban landscapes. The results showed that the GlobalLand30 data were calibrated and PLUS model accuracy was improved to more than 86%. The accuracy of the modified PLUS model based on a Morris sensitivity analysis was increased, and the kappa coefficients were increased by approximately 3%. The results of the multi-scenario simulation showed that under the SSP126-EP scenario, future land use in Beijing could balance urban development and ecological protection, and thus would be more suitable for sustainable development. In the other two scenarios, ecological land will be encroached by urban development. From 2000 to 2020, the degree of LER was generally lower, moderate, or higher, and the overall level of LER showed a downward trend continuing until 2100 in the SSP126-EG scenario. Future land use simulations and LER assessment under multi-scenarios could help decision makers develop multi-scale landscape protection strategies.