Machine Learning for Global Bioclimatic Classification: Enhancing Land Cover Prediction through Random Forests
2024
Morgan Sparey | Mark S. Williamson | Peter M. Cox
Traditional bioclimatic classification schemes have several inherent shortcomings: they do not represent anthropogenic impact, they contain a bias for global north representation, and they lack flexibility regarding novel climates that may arise due to climate change. Here we present an alternative approach, using a machine learning approach. We combine European Space Agency Land Cover Classification data with traditional bioclimate classification climate variables, and additional variables: latitude, elevation, and topography. We utilise a random forest algorithm to create a classification system that overcomes the limitations and biases of the traditional schemes. The algorithm produced is able to predict land cover classification globally at 0.5-degree resolution with 93% accuracy. The resulting classifications account for human impact, particularly via agriculture, are informed by the topography of a region, and avoids the biases that traditional bioclimatic schemes contain. The algorithm can provide insights into the drivers of land cover change, the spatial distribution of land cover change, the potential impacts on ecosystem services and human well-being. Furthermore, the random forest model serves as a novel approach to the prediction of future land cover, and can be used to identify regions at risk of a land cover transition. Our data-based machine learning approach produces larger land-cover changes due to climate change than a traditional bioclimatic scheme, especially in sensitive regions such as Amazonia. Overall, our new approach projects approximately 17.4 million square kilometre of land-cover change per degree celsius of global warming.
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