Interaction Effect of Carbon Emission and Ecological Risk in the Yangtze River Economic Belt: New Insights into Multi-Simulation Scenarios

The scientific quantification of the ecological effects of carbon emissions, the reduction of ecological risk (ER), and the evaluation of the interaction effect between carbon emissions and ER are the pivotal measures for ensuring the longevity and continuity of sustainability. However, a dearth of comprehensive and macro-level evaluations exist pertaining to the ER and carbon emissions within the entirety of the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB). We have constructed four distinct simulated scenarios within the YREB, which include natural development (ND), cultivated land protection (CLP), ecological conservation (EC), and low carbon (LC) scenarios. Based on the consideration of future uncertainty, we predicted LUCEs and ERI under different scenarios, and analyzed the spatial interaction effects of LUCEs and ERI from the dual perspectives of the spatial spillover effect and spatial coupling effect. The results showed that under the four outlined scenarios, encompassing diverse parameters, conversion possibilities, and areas subject to restrictions, the land utilization patterns of the YREB in 2030 have unveiled pronounced disparities. The LUCEs in the YREB showed significant spatial heterogeneity under the four scenarios: the maximum value was 6.65 under the CLP scenario and the minimum value was 4.65 under the LC scenario. The ER has the highest value under the ND scenario and the lowest value under LC scenario. Construction land is the largest contributor to increased LUCEs, and forest land is the form of terrestrial utilization that reduces the impact of LUCEs. In different scenarios, LUCEs have a significant negative spillover effect on ER, while the bidirectional spatial coupling effect between LUCEs and ERI presents significant differences. Under the LC scenario, land with a strong carbon sequestration capacity increased significantly, the fragmentation of water bodies was alleviated, and the CCD was the highest. This study offers scientific counsel for the sustainable development of various regions within the YREB, thereby fostering the achievement of a harmonious coexistence between the ecological milieu and economic development.