An Analysis of Meteorological Anomalies in Kamchatka in Connection with the Seismic Process
2025
Alexey Lyubushin | Galina Kopylova | Eugeny Rodionov | Yulia Serafimova
This study investigates the hypothesis that meteorological anomalies may precede earthquake events. Long-term time series of observations for air temperature, atmospheric pressure and precipitation at a meteorological station in Kamchatka are considered. Time series are subjected to Huang decomposition into sequences of levels of empirical oscillation modes (intrinsic mode functions&mdash:IMFs), forming a set of orthogonal components with decreasing average frequency. For each IMF level, the instantaneous amplitudes of envelopes are calculated using the Hilbert transform. A comparison with the earthquake sequence is made using a parametric model of the intensity of two interacting point processes, which allows one to quantitatively estimate the &ldquo:measure of the lead&rdquo: of the time instants of the compared sequences. For each IMF level, the number of time moments of the largest local maxima of instantaneous amplitudes which is equal to the number of earthquakes is selected. As a result of the analysis, it turned out that for the sixth IMF level (periods of 8&ndash:16 days), the &ldquo:lead measure&rdquo: of the instantaneous amplitude maxima of meteorological parameters in comparison with earthquake time moments significantly exceeds the inverse lead, which confirms the existence of prognostic changes in meteorological parameters in the problem of &ldquo:atmosphere&ndash:lithosphere&rdquo: interaction. This study reveals that certain meteorological anomalies can be a precursor for seismic activity.
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