Applicability of Hydrologic Modeling to Tactical Military Decision Making
1991
Fisher, Jr, Kenneth F.
Military training and combat operations are affected by surface hydrology. Incorporation of historical and model-based analysis of hydrology into military plans will provide a sound basis for making decisions regarding the period of execution for a particular mission or an entire large scale operation. Present Army planning doctrine lacks sufficient hydrologic analysis of potential areas of operation for long range (years) planning purposes. This thesis combines proven surface hydrologic methods and technologies, into standardized Army planning formats, to provide critical hydrologic information to military decision makers. A background investigation validated the need for incorporating hydrologic information into decision making; a case study proved the value of hydrologic analysis. A recent training exercise planned without hydrologic analysis experienced 10.86 in. of rainfall. As a result, major training events were canceled, there was greater damage to the environment, prolonged repair to training areas, and reduction in training time. Recommended dates for the exercise, derived by hydrologic analysis of the area of operation, based on the commander's intent, recorded only 0.05 inches of rain. Detailed flexible plans increase the preparedness of military units. Operation Just Cause and Operation Desert Shield are two recent examples of the increased need for rapid deployment plans to back up national policies. Hydrologic analysis of areas of contingency operation will strengthen decisions concerning the optimum time of execution.
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