Tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal and extreme sea-level projections along the east coast of India in a future climate scenario
2011
Unnikrishnan, A.S. | RameshKumar, M.R. | Sindhu, B.
The simulations from the regional climate model, PRECIS (Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies), were analysed for the occurrence of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal in a baseline scenario (1961–1990) and a future climate scenario (2071– 2100), A2. The analysis showed an increase in the frequency of cyclones in the Bay of Bengal during the late monsoon (August and September) in the A2 scenario compared to the baseline scenario. Extreme sea-level projections along the east coast of India were made using a storm surge model developed for the Bay of Bengal, driven by winds and surface atmospheric pressure. For A2 simulations, a uniform sea-level rise of 4 mm/yr from 1990 was included from the present levels. The 100-year return levels of extreme sea-level events are found to be higher by about 15–20% for the A2 scenario than those in the baseline scenario for locations north of Visakhapatnam. However, for Sagar and Kolkata, increase is found to be less than 5%.
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