Uncertain Waters: Thinking About China's Emergence as a Maritime Power
2011
Bickford, Thomas J | Holz, Heidi A | Vellucci Jr, Frederic
China is an emerging maritime actor with expanding interests in security at sea. As a consequence, the capabilities of Chinese maritime security forces are improving, missions for the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) are expanding, new actors and bureaucratic interests are emerging, and some observers feel that China is now more willing to challenge the interests of others in the maritime domain. CNA has undertaken this study to provide strategic-level context to foster discussion and debate about China's maritime rise and its implications. Key findings are as follows: China is in the midst of an important and potentially far-reaching reassessment of how the maritime domain fits into its national security calculus; Most of China's critical maritime security concerns and the focus of its efforts in terms of traditional security will continue to be close to home; China's maritime economic focus will likely be on ensuring access to, and control of, marine resources, guaranteeing freedom of movement of Chinese seaborne trade, and protecting its growing overseas economic interests; In ensuring and expanding access to the maritime domain, there is a domestic political stake for the ruling regime; Maritime policy-making and implementation is becoming more complex and diffuse due to the rise of new bureaucratic actors -- the PLA Navy is just one of those actors; China remains focused on building an offshore Navy that can defend China's territorial and economic interests in the Yellow Sea, East China Sea, and South China Sea, and just beyond the First Island Chain; At the same time, China is actively discussing the need to develop a distant seas Navy -- not in an effort to sustain global operations, but rather to project a global presence and secure its interests.
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