Conservation planning for boreal birds in a changing climate: a framework for action

The boreal forests of North America support billions of birds of over 300 species. The region remains mostly intact but is expected to undergo major changes over the next century due to anthropogenic climate change. This warming, and resulting changes in moisture regimes, are altering vegetation and disturbance dynamics, and will likely result in expansion of grasslands and deciduous forests, strongly challenging bird species to keep pace. We present a vulnerability-adaptation framework to guide bird conservation based on species' individual vulnerability and exposure to climate change. For sensitive species with declining populations, conservation should focus on management of current threats and species recovery in situ to improve adaptive capacity and facilitate future shifts in distribution. Sensitive species with high exposure to climate change may warrant more extensive intervention, such as habitat manipulation or even translocation. For species with lower sensitivity and stable populations, but high climate change exposure, long-term investments in protecting refugia and "stepping stones" will be most effective. In general, across all species, land-based approaches that "conserve nature's stage" by promoting geophysical diversity and habitat connectivity, maintaining natural disturbance dynamics, and facilitating broad shifts in bird distribution may prove most effective in maintaining species diversity. Implementation of this framework will require large-scale, interagency coordination on recovery plans, as well as adaptive forest management, designation of critical habitat, and land protection. Challenges include data gaps, uncertainty about future conditions, coordination of conservation actions during the nonbreeding periods, and the region's vast scale. However, given the region's continental importance, successful implementation of this framework could benefit birds throughout the western hemisphere.