Methodological toolkit for assessing the level of stability of agricultural enterprises

Purpose. The purpose of the study is to develop methodological toolkit for identifying the level of stability of agricultural enterprises based on the study of stochastic series of values of the resulting parameters. Methodology / approach. During the study, a method of modeling stochastic quantities was used, in particular the Verhulst equation to study the dynamics of the values of the resulting parameter relative to a monotonically increasing series of values and different values of the coefficient of “density accumulation”. The GARCH model was used to predict the values of the variance of the resulting parameter, and regression analysis was used to determine the dependence of the state of enterprises on the factors of internal and external environments. Results. It is substantiated that the values of the logistic function of Verhulst imitate the behavior of a stochastic quantity. Therefore, this function can be used to measure the transition point of the system from a stable state to a state of instability. It is proved that, taking into account the stochastic and reflective nature of the development of agricultural enterprises, it is expedient to forecast their state on the basis of comparing the variances of the values of the performance parameter. It is reasoned that the application of the function of changing the degree coefficients allows obtaining the most complete information about the influence of subjective factors of the internal environment of agricultural enterprises on their state. Originality / scientific novelty. Methodological toolkit for identifying the level of stability of agricultural enterprises, which is based on the application of the Verhulst equation to study the dynamics of the values of the resulting parameter relative to the monotonically increasing series of values and different values of the coefficient of “density accumulation”, and, unlike existing parameter from the factors of internal and external environments of the agricultural enterprise. Practical value / implications. The practical value of the developed methodological toolkit is in the possibility of its use by managers of agricultural enterprises to forecast their state, taking into account the influence of internal and external factors. Given that the prediction is reduced to one resulting parameter, the proposed toolkit is easy to use. It is advisable to use it to justify regulatory decisions, in particular in the process of adaptive management and streamlining of personnel management processes and intellectual potential of employees.